The pressure on the exchange rate reappeared in the midst of the pandemic crisis. Uncertainty about the future of debt
The dollar traded in stock market operations to flee currencies broke the $ 100 barrier for the first time on Monday, while the 30% surcharge ticket traded at $ 87.66, an increase of 47 cents compared to the Wednesday before Easter.
In a climate of increased uncertainty from the coronavirus pandemic, but also pressured by the impending debt renegotiation attempt, the “counted settlement” dollar (CCL) soared to $ 102.73, with a strong increase of 8.5% compared to Wednesday, bringing the gap with the officer to over 57%.
This is the exchange rate at which the purchase and sale of shares or debt securities is operated, which can then be traded abroad to dollarize portfolios and thus leak foreign currency.
For its part, the MEP dollar also operated with an advance of 6.2%, to $ 100.24.
Through this modality, dollars can be purchased in the stock market, by acquiring a bond issued in pesos and making its subsequent sale in foreign currency.
Why did the “cash flow” jump?
“It would be necessary to look for in the collapse of the rates one of the main reasons for the rise of the free dollar. The disarmament of the Leliqs brought down the fixed-term rate, today hopefully 20% can be obtained when inflation will double. It is not uncommon for anyone with pesos to dollarize, “said financial analyst Christian Buteler.
The rise in this exchange rate occurred on a negative day for world markets, in parallel with the uncertainty surrounding the renegotiation of Argentina’s foreign debt.
The government would present this Wednesday a formal offer of negotiation to the international creditors who have in their hands bonds issued under New York legislation, which until now have been paying maturity payments using reserves.
The difference between the price of “cash with liqui” and the official dollar poses some drawbacks for the economy and can impact the pocket. In fact, experts warn that it raises doubts about the true price of the US currency and, thus, affects any dollarized operation.
For example, it can impact property sales prices and rentals. The latter, although they are in pesos, are calculated based on a profitability measured in dollars.
A high parallel dollar also generates expectations of a higher official price. This, ultimately, may lead to increased officer demand or “preventive” acceleration of peso prices.
According to economists, the current gap of 50% between the different prices of the dollar is at the limit of the “manageable” in terms of expectations. Perhaps this is why the official dollar is also currently increasing, albeit at a slower rate.
In the wholesale market, the exchange rate also rose and the Central Bank validated it, placing its selling position at 65.38 pesos, twenty-two cents above that registered last Wednesday.
The volume traded barely exceeded US $ 195 million, the lowest recorded in the month and, according to private sources, the monetary authority would have acquired just over US $ 32 million.
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