As the blue dollar hits new highs and the government negotiates with creditors, City experts share their investment suggestions
The dollar was in the news again today, when the blue touched a maximum of $ 138 and accumulates a 200% increase since Alberto Fernández won the PASO. Financial dollars, on the other hand, fell around 2% on the day but remain in the area of the $ 120.
While the market is concerned Due to the exchange rate dynamics, City experts shared with iProfesional what are the investments that recommend in this context volatility:
1. Cedears: to dollarize and avoid the Argentine risk
Cedears are the preferred alternative of investors and specialists in recent times, since they are local certificates that represent a share that is quoted abroad. These papers are purchased in pesos and have no restrictions linked to the exchange rate.
“Those who want to be out of the Argentine risk look for cedears. Obviously, these papers appreciated in pesos when the dollar rises But you have to choose good actions that have a dollar projection. Otherwise, it is a problem and can be lost in US currency, “said Diego Martínez Burzaco, economist at Global Investor.
In the same vein, Julio Calcagnino, financial advisor to TSA Bursátil, stated: “To those who want to expose some of their portfolio to equities, we are recommending going for the cedears. We prefer the technology sector, with companies like Microsoft, Amazon and Google. Some banks like us, although with more collections, for example, Bank of America. ”
The role of Microsoft is one of the cedears that specialists recommend
And he added: “Instead, we are not favoring both investments related to mass consumption or energy, since we do not know to what extent the means of transport are going to be normalized, which are the main oil demanders and clients of the oil companies. Anyway, for those who think that normalization is going to happen soon, there are interesting investments like Petrobras or Exxon Mobil. “
For his part, when choosing roles, Martínez Burzaco explained: “Barrick Gold It can be an interesting one; some laboratory that is working on a vaccine against the coronavirus, such as Glaxo or Johnson & Johnson; waves big techlike Microsoft or Google. ”
At a time when the stock market dollar shot up, Calcagnino referred to the effect of this jump in this investment alternative. “Transferring not only allows you to buy the stock from outside but it is purchased in pesos and, as the different implicit dollars are moving, the paper accompanies that movement. Entering the investment right now, you enter a cash with implicit settlement a little higher“, said.
2. Argentine shares, with potential to rise
The roles of local companies come badly beaten in recent months and that’s why specialists believe they could regain value going forward. However, it is an option that does not escape the Argentine risk and, in times of economic crisis and slowdown in activity, it is important analyze well the patrimonial situation of the companies.
Juan Salerno, investment manager at Compass, argued in favor of this alternative, although he stressed that the potential for growth will not be alien to debt negotiation. “We have been recommending for 2 or 3 weeks to position itself in Argentine equities. That, obviously, will depend on whether there is a close-up on the positions in the deal Of the debt sovereign. We hope, at least, that the Government can make some kind of counterproposal and bring positions closer. We understand that would bring good momentum to the market, particularly for stocks, because they are super punished in dollars“he explained.
The specialist also highlighted that Compass offers a fund that invests in stocks and argued that “it is a very good alternative to position yourself not only because is linked to the dollarbut also for the upside that there may be towards a better scenario, with valuations that seem cheap to usIn addition, he added that the actions are more defensive in an environment of high inflation.
Martínez Burzaco also mentioned equities among the recommended alternatives. “For those who want risk, there is a significant bet on some Argentine stocks, especially bank stocks, waiting for there to be some arrangement in the debt restructuring, “he said.
3. Bonds tied to the official dollar
Despite the fact that the exchange gap continues to widen, specialists see value in dollar linked corporate bonds. Is about titles that They are purchased in pesos and follow the official exchange rate, so they cover the devaluation.
Although today there is a great distance between the official and the financial dollar, analysts understand that, eventually, the gap will narrow. “We believe that the dollar in Argentina should depreciate over time and that gap that we have today between the official and the implicit should be closing. Obviously, an abrupt depreciation of the official exchange rate is not desirable, but we understand that we could enter this dynamic and one way of capturing that is through dollar-linked papers, “Salerno said.
The president of Allaria Fondos, Néstor De Césare, agreed on the vision: “At these levels of the exchange gap, we are beginning to see attractive positioning in dollar linked instruments, which are purchased in pesos but which adjust their capital with the official dollar. sometime we think it’s going to accelerate the devaluation rate so as not to delay the exchange rate. Our dollar-denominated mutual funds are good coverage for those who want to remain invested in foreign currency. “
Although there is not much supply on the market today, they believe that emissions of this type will begin to multiply. In fact, Pan American Energy and IRSA have already announced placements under this modality.
For his part, Calcagnino also recommended this alternative although he stressed that, at this time of economic crisis, it is important to make “a good analysis of companies stations. ”
4. And the dollar bill?
Regarding the convenience or not of dollarization at these prices, the waters are divided between the specialists consulted. Although they agree that it depends on the risk profile of each investor.
“We do not consider it a good time to go from pesos to dollars, since at current market exchange rate levels the gap is close to the historical maximum levels and it seems to us that in real terms it is quite depreciated. We prefer one balanced wallet between dollars and pesos, especially with the new investment flows, “said De Césare.
Along these lines, Salerno pointed out: “In the event that there is a According to the bondholders or the positions are approaching, it seems to me that a fund of stocks or bonds in dollars will have much more profitability than the ticket. Then, each one will decide according to their risk profile. Whoever is very conservative probably prefers to buy ticket dollars at any price. But it seems to us that we have other types of alternatives, beyond that the dollar, in any of its versions, continues to rise. ”
Martínez Burzaco agreed with the vision of his colleague: “It is defensive and risky. If there is no default, the dollar falls”
On the contrary, Calcagnino recognized that, within the broadest menu of investments, “the recommendation to buy dollars banknotes in authorized markets, like the MEP or the official one, with the current limitations and regulations. ”
“In a context like the current one, with a real exchange rate a little late, with the volatility of the debt restructuring process and the question that the Argentine seeks refuge in the dollar, it is interesting to think of maintain or increase the dollar exposure of investment portfolios“he concluded.
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