Based on a projection for the next five years, experts estimated when the effects of the pandemic will be controlled
Scientists from Harvard University made a projection on the behavior of SARS-CoV-2 for the next 5 years; therefore, they estimate, it is possible that social distancing as a preventive measure could last until 2022.
To do this, they projected a series of scenarios that could arise over the next five years according to the transmission dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2; Nevertheless, They noted, intermittent isolation may need to be extended until 2022.
Based on the estimated projection, post-pandemic scenarios will sharpen in seasonal and geographic patterns; that is, the SARS-CoV-2 will attack with more or less intensity depending on the climatic condition of each region. In this sense, they explained that it is necessary to apply intermittent measures of social distancing to avoid epidemic peaks that exceed the capacity of hospital centers.
“Social distancing measures could be completely relaxed in early or mid-2021, depending again on the degree of seasonal transmission force,” notes the team led by Stephen M. Kissler.
On the other hand, the projection of the study points out that the behavior of SARS-CoV-2 is based on non-pharmaceutical aspects such as the effectiveness of prevention measures or the degree of immunity that is generated during the pandemic.
However, they point out that these forecasts may vary depending on the magnitude of the scientific projects carried out during the times of the first pandemic wave: serological studies, vaccines and treatments, according to Sputnik News.
Thus, the amount of serological tests carried out may present a clearer picture of those who have generated antibodies during the infection phase.
In this perspective, the team of Harvard scientists also noted that The impact of COVID-19 may change as vaccines are generated that generate immunity to SARS-CoV-2 and treatments to assist in the period of convalescence.
However, the researchers emphasized that the intensity of pandemic and post-pandemic outbreaks will depend on the time of year the infection is established. Therefore, they make a call to maintain social distancing strategies as a way to avoid the stress of health systems.
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