According to the former director of Banco Nación during the Macri government, “not even Copperfield knows what the exact balance is between quarantine and economy”
The Economist Carlos Melconian analyzed the post-pandemic scenario of coronavirus for Argentina and highlighted the difficulty that exists to know “what is the exact balance between the quarantine and the economy”
“At this point we have all learned that saving people is better than not saving them. I am not going to go into such nonsense as to whether it is convenient or not. [el contagio] it slows down, and does not heal or fix, which creates a problem because the quarantine, but dramatic scenes are avoided, “said the economist regarding isolation measures in the country.
Speaking to LN +, the former director of Banco Nación during the Mauricio Macri government affirmed that unlocking the quarantine throughout the world is difficult and disorderly and remarked that “the more you lock up, the more dramatic the economy”
Melconian said that unlocking quarantine is difficult and messy, noting that “the more you lock up, the more dramatic the economy is.”
“Neither Mandrake nor Copperfield know what the Balance Exactly between quarantine and economy. They say ‘keep him locked up, but get out a little bit’. That does not exist. That is doing prong politics, getting your ear wet, “emphasized the economist.
Melconian He assured that it is “a very complicated pandemic where in the world this is money, and if you do not have a local, international or anti-cyclical fund, you have monetary issue”
“Argentina inevitably goes to a higher inflation. Much more if on the economic horizon you do not want to show what this evacuation process is going to be, “said the verbose ecomista.
Debt, dollar and inflation, according to Melconian’s gaze
Likewise, Melconian considered that the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán “It is only focused on debt” and the communicational part in these cases is very relevant.
“(Alberto) Fernández cannot speak about the exchange rate issue and the ministers without knowing what the evacuation framework of this currency avalanche in the second quarter. I believe more in an economic team with someone who has the baton in terms not only of management, but of communication, and that the President is always apart from these things, “he added.
Regarding the deceleration of the inflation in the country, he said there are three issues. “The first is that, before the coronavirus, we already had inflation in the first quarter of 7.8, that is, the first economic program of this Government no longer exists. The second factor is the pandemic and demand: there is an obvious drop in consumption. ”
On the third, he said that it is a “methodological cause”.
For Melconian, Minister Guzmán “is only focused on debt”
“This is a topic that most likely the Indec you have to have some additional level of precision, that some shortages are being generated for rare things, that is, how an air ticket, a tour package, a whole set of activities where the place where it is valued is closed is valued today “he explained.
“Obviously there is a statistical gap, which has nothing to do with the Indec from 2007 onwards, but there is one thing inflationary, which in no way am I going to call repressed, but that as the quarantine is blanched, it will reappear, there is no doubt, “added the economist.
When referring to the economic successes of the Fernández management, the economist said that he could not qualify it in that way, but as “some questions in which they took a correct path to follow”.
“I had already stated my differences at the time in the program that we had given to Macri, for example, the exchange rate regime. In no way was this supercepo, but everyone knows our position of December 10, 2015, that some headache caused us to manifest it even publicly, and we believed that the Argentina it was not for the free, floating exchange rate, “he said.
“Now we are at the other extreme, but it is clear that Macri’s exchange policy was a mistake and his goal of premature inflation was also wrong. And it is not that here it was a success, it is continuity, although going from thread to the other side of exchange rate policy. These were questions that were coming and that it was very difficult to go backwards, beyond the semantics ‘re-profiling or restructuring’, it was an obvious thing. Since 2018 we stated that the country had to go to a restructuring in good faith because the costs and terms at which debt was being contracted were inappropriate, “he concluded.
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