In the parallel market the currency is trading at $ 201. Look at the price of the blue dollar today and how the dollar is priced Stock market and cash with settlement
The Dolar blue trades this Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at $ 201 in caves in downtown Buenos Aires.
In this way, the price moves slightly away from the record of Thursday, November 11, the day it reached $ 207.
In this context, investors carefully watch the evolution of the stock prices of the dollar.
For example, the Dollar Stock Exchange, or MEP, is located around the $ 205.82.
Meanwhile, the dollar counted with clearance trades to $ 218.25.
As noted above, the Dolar blue is offered $ 201 in caves in downtown Buenos Aires.
In recent days the Central Bank had managed to buy dollars in the market
For its part, in the wholesale segment, the US currency starts the round at $ 100.57, always under the watchful eye of the Central Bank (BCRA).
At official retail market, the North American currency operates at an average of $ 106.10 in agencies and banks of the city of Buenos Aires, so the saving dollar, which is calculated with the surcharge of 30% of the PAÍS tax plus 35% of the income tax, sells for around $ 175.
According to the usual survey carried out by the central bank Among the main financial entities that operate in the City, these are the sale prices of the official retail dollar:
- ICBC: $ 106
- Nation: $ 105.50
- Santander: $ 106
- Patagonia: $ 106
- Macro: $ 106.50
- Itaú: $ 106.20
The Dolar blue, which is sold at $ 201 does not have an official price, but its value leaves the average price in places of unofficial exchange.
For its part, the country risk stands at 1,795 basis points.
The blue dollar fell but the tension continues: they warn that a 100% gap is not sustainable
As iProfesional recorded, in four of the last five elections, the “day after” showed that the price of Dolar blue it gave slightly with respect to the close of Friday before the elections. The analysts’ expectation was that once again, this behavior would be repeated this Monday. And this was confirmed on this day in which the informal dollar shows a slight drop compared to Friday’s price and is located at $ 199.50.
It should be remembered that quote It went almost nonstop from $ 196.50 at the beginning of the month to $ 206.50 last Thursday, to close at $ 200 on Friday.
Now it fell about 50 cents but the concern is still installed, not so much because of the nominal value of the parallel as because of the gap, which continues to hover around 100% against the wholesale dollar, which is trading at $ 100.27.
The Economist Jorge Vasconcelos, coordinator of the IERAL of the Mediterranean Foundation, points out that even with its recurring crises, “It has not been common in Argentina the existence of exchange gaps above 100% that have lasted for too long.”
In this regard, it exemplifies that in the decade of the ´80 there were two moments in which the exchange rate gap exceeded 100%: during the Malvinas War and in hyperinflation, but in both cases they were “fleeting phenomena”.
Therefore, this expert reminds that you have to go back to the decade of the ´70 to find exchange rate gaps greater than 100% which, in turn, lasted over several years, with the 370% peak during the “Rodrigazo”, according to the data cited by the consulting firm FMyA.
“In reality, the evolution of the price of the dollar in the free market, now at the 200-peso lifeline, tends to reflect monetary imbalances,” says Vasconcelos.
For its part, the consulting firm LCG, founded by the economist Martín Lousteau, details that “the exchange gap of the 100% did accelerate loss of reserves, and the loss of them could lead to a new increase in the gap, marking the unsustainability of the current level “.
And complete that in “this spiral between gap and reserves it could be the beginning of a price escalation that would be difficult to cut. ”
The problem economists see is that the government take the quote from exchange rate as a problem itself, and not that it is due, precisely, to different causes that are linked to substantive aspects. That is, to the monetary issue, high inflation, absence of an economic plan and lack of confidence towards the current management.
“The very existence of the gap generates distortions that make it very visible that something is not working well. However, there are risks of trying to resolve the exchange issue, as something isolated, “he says. Guido Lorenzo, CEO of LCG.
And ends: “If the Government insists on wanting to narrow the gap, and for this it is willing to validate an increase in the official exchange rate, the only thing it will achieve is to push all nominality upwards”.
The rise of the blue dollar in recent weeks brought the gap with the official exchange rate to 100%.
Exchange rate and gap
When it comes to knowing how out of date the exchange rate is, in figures, the IERAL compares the evolution of the “Broad Monetary Base” with that of gross reserves of the Central Bank, where it has that at the end of October $ 188.1 for every dollar of gross reserves, when at the end of 2020 that ratio had been $ 131.4 and $ 66 at the end of 2019.
That is, it is a calculation of convertibility exchange rate, where the necessary pesos that are available as coverage for each dollar available in the Central Bank are detailed.
From the LCG consulting firm it is added that the point to consider is that the parallel exchange rate “reflects the unbalance between pesos and dollars of the economy, which is a subsidiary of monetary policy “.
That is, a monetary policy that, these experts detail, “is nothing more than the result of past fiscal dominance, expressed in the accumulation of non-monetary liabilities and the expected fiscal deficit.”
On the other hand, from the IERAL they affirm that for the magnitude of the exchange gap matters also the trajectory of exchange rate in real terms in the official market.
“Calibrate the degree of ´exchange arrears´ (overvaluation of the peso) in the present is, anyway, ´matter of opinion´, being that official sources prefer to use the reference of the bilateral exchange rate between the dollar and the peso, which shows that the current parity is quite aligned with the average of the period that goes between 1997 and 2021 “, says Vasconcelos.
However, it clarifies that this official argument is “contradictory” in the fact that since 1997 a difference of 19.5 points has accumulated between the improvement in Total Factor Productivity of the United States and the fall experienced by Argentina
“Using the deflator public spending in current pesos, instead of the CPI, to calculate the real exchange rate; the reference given by the parities with the Brazilian real and the Chilean peso; or the bilateral exchange rate with the United States, but corrected for productivity, reaches similar numbers, regarding the possible overvaluation of the peso in real terms in the official exchange market “, describes Vasconcelos.
According to economists, the Government is only looking at the price of the dollar, and not the problems generated by the rise in the free market.
On the LCG side, it is stated that, of course there is a monetary and exchange problem what has to be solved, “but if it has no anchor in the real side will have no effect “.
“It is not about having a fiscalist look of the problem, but to understand that the sequence and speed in which macroeconomic problems must be addressed are the key to success, “concludes Lorenzo.
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