this forecast 40 experts by 2022 / Argentina News

Already with a 2021 that has a few weeks ahead, they were published new forecasts about what can happen to the dollar and the inflation next year. Specifically, it is the November survey of FocusEconomics, where some 40 economists from national and foreign banks and consulting firms participate.

In a context in which the next few months must be canceled various debt payments With the Monetary Fund, attention for the future is focused on the agreement, or not, that the Government will carry out with the international organization.

On the other hand, the dollar price is a concern, and given the lack of foreign exchange and large exchange barriers, the question that the market is asking is what type of devaluation will be performed. Added to this are inflationary concerns.

In the immediate term, analysts’ projections estimate a certain upward trend for the exchange rate for the end of next year, and certain “noise” in different aspects that are linked to activity.

“The economy will grow at a noticeably slower pace in 2022 compared to the current year, due to a decreasing base effect. In other words, growth will be restricted by weak macroeconomic fundamentals, capital controls and a lack of investor confidence, “says the FocusEconomics report.

In addition, it warns that the uncertainty about the evolution of the pandemic and the ongoing debt renegotiations with the IMF “cloud the outlook.”

In short, the panelists surveyed in this report consider that the economy would grow by 2.2% in 2022, which represents a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.

On the other hand, expect the inflation It will remain “elevated“next year, as the Central Bank” continues to finance the fiscal deficit through a sustained expansion of the monetary base. ”

Therefore, economists project a consensus that inflation by the end of 2022 will be 47.9%. This represents 2.7 percentage points more than last month’s estimate.

Dollar price

According to the different projections, the price of the official wholesale dollar would end this year around $ 110. That is, the devaluation for the entire 2021 it would be almost 31%.

As for the consensus that economists expect for the exchange rate in December 2022, it shows an upward trend.

The November consensus from FocusEconomics is that the wholesale dollar will play at the end of next year the $ 159.58, an increase in the price of around 2 pesos compared to the figures estimated in the previous survey (October) for the same date.

“The flight of the weight, the inflation and the Print of money will continue to weigh on the currency in 2022 “, details this report.

In this way, if all the estimates are met, the expected devaluation for the whole of next year would be 45%. In other words, a level very similar to the expected inflation for the same period, which is almost 48%.

Likewise, the economists’ projections are above the project of budget 2022 that the Government sent to Congress, where it provides for an official exchange rate of $ 131.10 and 33% inflation by the end of next year.

A fact that draws attention is that in the futures and options market Matba-Rofex, is being traded for the longest period, which is May 2022, a wholesale dollar price of $ 136.5. Therefore, it would be exceeding what was foreseen by the official budget.

It is expected that the price of the dollar will continue to rise in the coming months, in line with inflation.

Price of the dollar, according to economists

When analyzing the specific projections of the different economists in the FocusEconomics report, a certain dispersion of the data can be perceived, ranging from a minimum of $ 135 to a maximum of $ 180, according to the consulting firm or bank surveyed.

The The highest price for the wholesale exchange rate for December 2022, is the one held by the national consulting firm Econometric, in the $ 180.49. It is followed by Quantum Finanzas with $ 180.

Also the consultant Empiria foresees $ 175.60 by the end of 2022 and, according to iProfesional, the arguments are as follows.

“If net reserves are observed, since the last week of October the BCRA has been losing an average of US $ 100 million a day, a very dangerous trend, and the gap reached 100% these days. This shows that economic tensions began to deepen and under this dynamic the exchange rate scheme becomes unsustainable, increasing the chances of a correction in the summer, “he told this media. Jerónimo Montalvo, economist at Empiria.

And he adds: “This will not solve things either if the Government does not specify a economic plan, both fiscal and monetary, that seek to demonstrate that the ‘weight’ still has life. ”

For its part, Melisa Sala, chief economist at LCG, a consulting firm that is planning $ 170.5 by end of 2022, details to iProfesional that “the economic scenario is not clear, but it can be thought that, within the framework of an agreement with the IMF, the dollar can not be more behind“.

In other words, it considers that it should, at a minimum, “follow the dynamics of prices. Therefore, this value reflects that scenario in a context in which we do not expect that the inflation give in, if not the opposite, “he ends.

On the side of the economist Sebastian Menescaldi, director of Eco Go, is expected by the end of next year an exchange rate of $ 178.58. “We are anticipating that the devaluation will accelerate a bit, and prices are also on the rise.”

And he completes: “To the extent that the agreement with the Monetary Fund is delayed, that will cause more nervousness in the market, a greater gap and a higher level of inflation.”

While, Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T Asesores, whose forecasts are of $ 159.57 By the end of 2022, he also provides his testimonials to iProfessional.

For this economist, his projection is within the average of the forecasts. “Even, the analyst who predicts the least price in the report is at a level above to the value of budget dollar presented by the Government in Congress. Something that reflects the widely shared vision, in which it is believed that the exchange rate is now going to have to move faster after the elections. ”

And Ticornia concludes: “We bet that this is under a more gradual movement from month to month, and not as an abrupt jump.”

– By Mariano Jaimovich

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