The economist Carlos Melconian spoke about the economic and political panorama after the defeat suffered by the ruling party in the legislative election
The economist Carlos Melconian spoke about the political and economic panorama after the defeat suffered by the ruling party in the legislative election.
“48 hours after another unworthy defeat, it lastsIn the ruling party, there has not yet been a political response from the internal ruling party. The three outcomes that I expected for this week: The politician is absent, the exchange is heading to … and from the Monetary Fund, the government is showing that it is on its way to the ambulance again“, it indicated in declarations to TN.
“This election is economic. The insecurity, the one in La Matanza, did not move the ammeter. It hurts, but it is like that,” said the economist.
Melconian estimated that there will be an agreement with the IMF. “The Government itself was in charge of spreading that it is soon to reach an agreement with the Fund or is heading there. In April 2020 I said that Alberto Fernández is going to do 500 laps and ends up in the Monetary Fund because a dog that barks, does not bite, not because of the President but by the set of decisions “, indicated the economist.
Carlos Melconian predicted that “a change in the exchange rate format” is coming.
In this context, Melconian advanced that in the next days “there will be an exchange outcome”, but clarified that “the word explosion is too big“to the situation because” 200 pesos is an expensive dollar, 100 is not bad, but there are gaps of 100 “. It was there that Melconian anticipated that there will be”a change in the exchange rate in which we are, that comes for sure “.
The economist said that the difference registered between the PASO and the general ones on Sunday is “irrelevant” and he dismissed that a comfortable victory for the opposition would have brought relief to the economic outlook..
“It is irrelevant, that is for the Chamuyo. The defeat is a hard defeat, it is not a defeat like Nestor Kirchner’s in 2009, which was worthy because the nation won and the province narrowly lost,” he said.
“I am very worried about the future. The statesmen who appear from politics will have to study the province of Buenos Aires very seriously because it is a country within another country, “said Melconian.
In this regard, it indicated that the Province “It is 40 percent of the census, where half is more similar to Córdoba and Santa Fe and the other half is a hard suburbs. ”
“So you don’t know whether to govern for Córdoba and Santa Fe or for the suburbs,” he added.
“That is ungovernable, but not for this governor, for any governor“, indicated the analyst.
In this regard, Melconian pointed out that “if we were Germans with Angela Merkel on our heads we would be discussing those problems in Argentina. Making yourself out and barricading yourself in La Matanza was too small for you. Let’s not cheat anymore, let’s not fuck around anymore“.
The economist stated that the IMF will help the Government “to last so as not to be an international pariah” and he distanced himself from the critical versions regarding the demands that the agency may make to refinance the debt for 44 billion dollars. “The Fund does not come with a strawberry box, but someone has to put the hook“, he specified.
Melconian added that “Devaluing at 1% per month with inflation of 3% and the Central Bank obstructing the exchange market of 100 and 200 pesos has no future.”
Regarding the negotiation with the Monetary Fund, Melconian said that “If there is an agreement, it is to get off the cliff and return to the shoulder, not to return to the highway. ”
“The Central Bank no longer has reserves, sells, and has already started to back downr in parallel markets, because if there is an agreement with the Fund, it can no longer intervene with a free and floating market, “said the economist.
“This is a defeat that heralds a change and you just turn it around with the economy, “concluded Melconian.
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