The demand for dollars by banks remains high. What is driving this movement and why the BCRA foresees an early relief
This Monday, the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) bought $ 5 million in the exchange market on a day when the demand for dollars by banks to cover the outflow of deposits from customers was high and reached US $ 100 million, just as it happened last Monday.
On the other hand, the foreign exchange market remained without major variations, although noteworthy is a drop in the parallel dollar, the famous blue, which stood at $ 199 (drilling the floor of the u $ s200). But it did not fall alone, since the dollar MEP that is traded against the AL30 bond in the traditional market also fell back and closed around $ 202. While the Cash With Liquidation (CCL) rose a few points and was positioned at a price of $ 221.
The demand for dollars by banks is worrying.
A worrying trend
What is the cause of the demand for dollars from banks in a moment of calm in the currency and in which the rumors of a playpen that ran last week were forgotten by most? For some analysts, there are other factors that are worrying savers and such is the case of the delicate situation of the BCRA’s reserves.
“All day they talk that the Central does not have more dollars and that it would be touching the deposits, that some people they decide to take their money in the bank’s foreign currency “, he responds in dialogue with iProfessional Leonardo Svirsky, Sales and Trading at BullMarket Brokers. Thus, for him, this currency outflow data is a symptom of mistrust.
However, according to the economist of the Argentine Political Economy Center (CEPA), Leandro Ziccarelli, “Mondays usually always have a forecast component “, so there should be less demand from banks around Thursday and Friday and he assures that it was expected that the behavior of seven days ago would repeat itself for one or two more weeks and then tend to normalize. .
Exporters begin to sell off the wheat and soybean harvest with high international prices.
Relief began to bequeath to the BCRA
However, he anticipates that, that little run “is going to run out of air shortly”, especially considering that last week the liquidation of the fine harvest began (which reached just over $ 320 million in that period).
This Monday, December 6, the volume settled by the cereal companies was slightly higher than $ 170 million (It’s about the highest figure since October 18, when they had liquidated around US $ 200 million).
In addition, Ziccarelli emphasizes that “with the price of wheat in the clouds“, which today is around US $ 260 a ton while futures contracts expiring in March 2022 are around US $ 300, it is foreseeable that the trend will continue. However, this does not imply that the liquidation rate will go away. to maintain at those levels from now on (for example, on Friday a little more than US $ 20 million had been liquidated), but it is a good sign for the BCRA and the market.
Likewise, the expectation improves for the month if one takes into account that “the demand for pesos usually improves in December due to a question of seasonality” (since it is necessary to face the payment of Christmas bonuses, among other end-of-year expenses).
The truth is that the data on foreign exchange income this Monday just match the demand for dollars from banks and that allowed the BCRA to have a modest positive balance in the foreign exchange market.
Now, it remains to see how December continues and how the Government will be able to capitalize the income of foreign exchange for the harvest, the greater demand for pesos and advance in an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to define the situation with which it will arrive here at the beginning of next year.
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