“Quarantine paralyzed much of the productive apparatus. The time has come to hold the Argentine economy’s actors accountable and free. ”
These words belong to the president of the Córdoba Stock Exchange, Manuel Tagle, who next Tuesday 7 will lead the presentation of the 26th edition of the Balance of the Argentine Economy, in an activity sponsored by The voice.
The work of the entity’s Economic Research Institute (IIE), “Argentine Economy: The Interior Speaks”, contains the details of the main indicators of the activity in 2019. But the presentation will be more than that, since it will point to problems structural.
In addition, it will be given at a particular time for the entity, which is turning 120 years old. The Stock Exchange was founded in 1900, when Argentina was going through the most important period of economic growth in its history (1880-1914).
The current context, marked by the Covid-19 and the drag of the recession, is the other side. According to Tagle, to restart the economy, it is essential to reach an agreement on the debt and then face the reforms that restore credibility.
–What contributes to Córdoba the Balance of the Argentine Economy?
–The Balance is the result of the IIE’s hard work. It is a work consulted by many researchers, because it compiles 26 years of macroeconomic indicators and the activity of the economic sectors. What we will present this week is the report on 2019.
–Year very different from this 2020, marked by the pandemic.
-We are very worried. It paralyzed much of the productive apparatus. The time has come to hold the actors in the Argentine economy accountable and free.
–Many analysts warn that the recovery will be slow.
–After having a fall in the economy of 26.4 percent year-on-year, as in last April, when the quarantine is lifted there will be an initial rebound, but then it will take a long time to reach the activity levels prior to the pandemic.
–Because it did a lot of damage to the productive apparatus and the purchasing power of the people. Furthermore, the Argentine State has no margins to generate incentives.
–In the post-pandemic, what should change?
–Renegotiating the debt is an extreme priority. Argentina must have credit again, to contribute funds to the private and public sectors. We must demonstrate that we are a reliable country if we want the economy to recover. Then launch a monetary stabilization plan.
–What would a stabilization plan entail?
– It is not necessary to think of it as an abrupt contraction, but as a gradual ordering in time. The country needs a credible and consistent plan that allows integration into the world and is based on respect for the institutions and the Constitution. Done step by step, it will allow you to rebuild trust.
–During the quarantine, a large volume of money was issued.
–In situations as particular as these, I do not disagree with that. The big issue was made to sustain employment. After fixing the debt problem, a reform process needs to start. Otherwise, it will be difficult for activity to grow again.
–Where should these reforms go?
–You have to face labor, fiscal and pension problems to balance public accounts. That is going to allow to order the country and to stop the inflationary process. It is also necessary to reduce and control the size of the public sector, which suffocates the private sphere and acts as a counterweight to development.
–How do you see the Cordoba economy?
–It is a multifaceted economy, mobilized by agriculture, trade, services, metal-mechanic industries, the knowledge economy and universities. It has all the potential to drop less than the national average.
“Does that mean you can recover faster?”
– It is difficult to specify that at this time. Córdoba must also refinance the public debt, for which it is waiting for the advance of the national government. But it has already demonstrated that it has the vocation to reach a settlement without drawdown, which gives it a high level of credibility. If the provincial government achieves a consistent scheme, the local economy will be able to recover more quickly.
Argentine Economy: The Interior Speaks
Next Tuesday 7th, at 4pm and through the Zoom platform, the Stock Exchange will present “Argentine Economy: The Interior Speaks”, a report on the macroeconomic and activity indicators for both Córdoba, the Central Region and the country, with the sponsorship of The voice.
Although the work reflects what happened in 2019, during the presentations by the economists Raúl Hermida and Lucas Navarro, a comparative analysis of the current macroeconomic variables will be addressed, based on the structural problems of the economy that were deepened by the pandemic.
In addition, there will be proposals for a long-term stability and development plan.
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