To the surprise of many, the financial exchange market is cooling off, since the MEP and the CCL They go back day after day. However, the dollar blue linked to “the street” continues to grow little by little. From the market they affirm that this is due to the uncertainty due to the lack of an economic plan and the increase in inflation.
These are the quotes of the dollar today, Thursday, February 10:
- Dollar currency or wholesale: $105.89
- Official or retail dollar: $111
- Solidarity dollar: $183.15
- Blue dollar: $217
- MEP dollar: $206
- CCL dollar: $213
The blue dollar continues to rise day after day
What is the price of official dollars
This Thursday, the dollar currencythe exchange rate that is negotiated in the wholesale market, has a price of $105.89, which translates into an increase of 0.5% compared to the last business close.
On the other hand, the official dollar or retail dollar is traded at $111, according to information provided by the official website of Banco Nación. As for the average official dollar reported by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA), it trades at $111.52.
In any case, it is important to remember that this dollar only serves as a reference to know the exchange situation of the country for the vast majority of people because, in order to be “officially” dollarized, you have to pay 30% more PAIS Tax and 35 % retention of Profits. Thus arises the solidarity dollar which currently costs $183.15.
The figure may vary slightly depending on the bank where it is operated. In addition, it is also not recommended to buy this dollar because you are only allowed a maximum of $200 per month and then you cannot buy the other free dollars or make other specific stock movements.
How much is the blue dollar trading today
After lowering after payment to the IMF, the Dolar blue It went through a period of growth again and currently has a selling point of $217 and a buying point of $214.
Although a consolidated blue dollar above $200 may scare Argentines, it must be considered that inflation was higher in recent months, so, in real terms, the values of October 2019 have not yet been reached. 2020, when the dollar hit $195, which would equate to a current exchange rate of over $320.
In the short term, the MEP and CCL financial dollars could continue to decline
How much are the financial dollars
The last closure dictated that the MEP dollar (Electronic Payment Market), which is obtained by buying an asset in pesos and selling it locally in dollars, costs around $206, taking as a reference the public title GD30 because it is the one with the highest volume of operations.
On the other hand, the dollar CCL (Counted With Liquidation), which works in the same way as the MEP, but liquidating the dollars in another country, is close to $213.
This is the exchange gap
This Thursday, the exchange gaps, contemplating the official dollar against the rest of the dollars, are as follows:
- MEP dollar: 85%
- CCL dollar: 92%
- Blue dollar: 95%
Exchange gaps between free dollars and the official dollar continue to hover around the 90% barrier
Upward pressure remains latent
Despite the short-term declines, there are multiple factors that indicate that the blue, MEP and CCL dollars will continue to rise in the medium term until reaching new records in nominal terms.
In this line, Joaquin Gaidopublic accountant and financial adviser, affirms that he believes that the financial exchange rates, and, in part, the informal dollar, are somewhat backward given the high levels of monetary issue in recent months.
Specifically, the specialist affirms that the divergence between the real price and the theoretical value is between 5% and 10%, so “it would not be unreasonable to say that in the coming weeks it will go to the levels of $220/$230” .
In turn, in the medium and long term, everything will depend on the agreement reached with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Gaido believes that, even if it is slight, a deal will be reached, which could influence exchange rates.
In any case, the advisor’s projection indicates that, by the end of the year, free dollars could still not beat inflation, as happened in 2021, given the acceleration in the rise in prices and the certain “stability” of the US currency.
However, it is also important to consider that the BCRA has very low reserve levels, so it does not have enough power to go out and intervene in the foreign exchange market as on other occasions, which would put in check the low volatility of the dollars in in case the economic context scares investors and savers.
The international context also influences the exchange situation in Argentina
For its part, Jose Luis Pavesawealth advisor at Bull Market Brokers, maintains that You also have to pay attention to the international scenario to understand what can happen with the dollars in relation to the Argentine peso.
Recently, the United States Department of Labor indicated that inflation in December was 0.5%, which raises the year-on-year figure to 7%, the highest value in 40 years.
As a consequence, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is almost forced to raise interest rates, which could have a negative impact on emerging markets, since the currencies of these regions tend to fall against the dollar.
And as if this were not enough, you also have to be attentive to the local thick harvest. Pavesa developed that, if the drought persists, there may be drops in production, which would also put pressure on the exchange rate.
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