It accelerated in March and they already give it above 7% / Argentina News

According to measurements of various private consultancies on inflation, March’s figure will be higher than February’s and will be above 7%.

For the C&T Consultant, inflation continued to accelerate and reached 7% per month in March. It was the highest in the last 7 months and surpassed the March ’22 peak. Thus, the 12-month variation reached 107.7%.

As explained Maria Castigloni, Director of C&T Asesores, from her Twitter account, March is a historically inflationary month, among other things, due to the impact of the start of classes and the change of clothing season.

In this sense, the education sector had an inflation rate of 14.9% in March, according to the consultant.

This is largely explained by the agreement that the Ministry of Economy had already reached with the business chambers of private education with an increase in quotas of the order of 16.8% for this month.

“Several relevant items had rises of more than 7% in March, such as other goods and services, due to the rise in cigarettes. Food and beverages rose 7.7% in March, which implies a moderation after almost 10% in February , but it means a high pace”. Housing and basic services, Health and Transportation and communications, had strong increases, “she explained.

In respect of Food and drinks, 7.7% in March implies a moderation after almost 10% in February, but it still means a high rate. The rise in meat moderated especially in recent weeks, although it averaged a 9% rise in the month. Oils, baked goods and beverages showed a monthly slowdown, while dairy products, fruits and especially vegetables accelerated their rise.

On the other hand, for the Ecolatina consultantthe measurement of the index in Greater Buenos Aires showed inflation in March of 7.4% per month.

The increases were encouraged by the items of education and clothing. It is followed by train and bus tickets and prepaid costs keep pace with past inflation and Ripte.

In addition, there were increases in gasoline and private schools for the agreements with the Governments for Fair Prices. Finally, in March there were increases in the taxi token, and Cable and internet.

On the other hand, from Ecolatina they recorded that their measurements of Food and Beverages had lowered the rate of rebranding from 10.6% in February to 6.7% in March.

According to LCG Consultant, that measures the item weekly “For the fifth consecutive week, monthly average inflation for Food and Beverages slowed down and stood at 4.7%.” Within the items, it is worth noting that baked goods and pasta (8.7%) and Dairy and Eggs (6%) rose above average this month.

Regarding meat, LCG indicates by historically monitoring the evolution of the price with respect to the average for food, that it still has a path of 9.5% increase to reach the average for the rest of the food, taking into account the delay that I accumulate in 2022. With which, this item still has an upward path.

international forecasts

BBVA Research worsened this week its estimates on the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Argentina, projecting a fall of 2.5% vs. 0.5% which he calculated last December.

This downward revision is due, among other reasons, to the persistence of macroeconomic imbalances and the impact that the “most important drought in history” will have on agricultural activity. Indeed, the production of the main crops could be 35% lower in relation to the previous year.

In 2022, Argentina’s GDP grew by 5.2%, driven by a positive performance in almost all sectors of activity, with the exception of agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry, which fell by 4.1%. In turn, with regard to the fourth quarter, GDP increased by 1.9% compared to the same period of the previous year, although it shows a contraction of 1.5% compared to the figure for the third quarter of 2022.

In this scenario, meet the fiscal goal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) it will be “more challenging” this year, as the drought will subtract at least 0.5% of GDP collection.

Inflation and fall in GDP: forecasts for Argentina

The acceleration of inflation in January and February it will remain throughout the year in Argentina, with figures of around 6% per month. Along the same lines, prices will rise to 105% year-on-year in 2023, while they could rise to 115% in 2024.

Argentina exceeded three digits of inflation last January, when the figure rose to 102.5% year-on-year, four points above the figure for January, which was 98.8%. These rates, according to BBVA Research, show the solidity of the inflationary phenomenon in the country.