Unlike other similar situations, presidential decisions are shared by large parts of the opposition and the population
Economist Gabriel Rubinstein estimates that the EMAE (GDP-like, but monthly) would fall by around 15% in April this year.
The director of GRA Consultora added that the most serious previous falls were: 1) in May 1982, 5.0%, 2) in April 1989, 4.9% and, 3) in December 2001, 3 ,two%.
“It is possible that this fall is the largest. At the moment we estimate that the economy will fall for two months (March and April) and will recover somewhat in May, with partial quarantine,” he added.
In those two months, he estimates the drop to be close to 17%, against just over 15% in the long 11 months of the 2001/2002 crisis.
As the fall in GDP is more serious, an important difference must be considered. This is “commanded” by the Government, which decided based on health criteria to establish quarantines, and that as few companies as possible are working.
In the previous crises, the governments fell: Galtieri (for Malvinas), and finally the military government, Alfonsín (advance of the command step), De la Rúa (resignation). The crises “took them on.”
In this crisis, Alberto Fernández even looks strengthened, because a large part of the population and the opposition share the general strategy adopted. So that this tremendous drop in GDP does not imply a huge deterioration in the economy (and also ends up affecting “governance”), “the Government must find ways for the Argentine productive apparatus to remain intact. Although several measures are well oriented in that management, much remains to be done. We will see how lucid and effective the Alberto Fernández government ends up being in undertaking this task as necessary as it is challenging, “concluded the economist.
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