In the wholesale segment, the US currency starts the wheel at $ 101.01, always under the watchful eye of the Central Bank (BCRA)
The Dolar blue trades this Wednesday trades stable and is achieved at $ 201.50 in caves of downtown Buenos Aires.
In this way, the price remains slightly close to the record of Thursday, November 11, the day it reached $ 207.
In this context, investors carefully watch the evolution of the stock prices of the dollar.
For example, the Dollar Stock Exchange, or MEP, is located around the $ 203.56.
Meanwhile, the dollar counted with clearance is trading higher at $ 214.15.
As noted above, the Dolar blue is offered $ 201.50 in caves of downtown Buenos Aires.
In recent days the Central Bank had managed to buy dollars in the market
For its part, in the wholesale segment, the US currency starts the round at $ 101.01, always under the watchful eye of the Central Bank (BCRA).
At official retail market, the North American currency operates at an average of $ 106.52 in agencies and banks of the city of Buenos Aires, so the saving dollar, which is calculated with the surcharge of 30% of the PAÍS tax plus 35% of the income tax, sells for around $ 175.69.
According to the usual survey carried out by the central bank Among the main financial entities that operate in the City, these are the sale prices of the official retail dollar:
- ICBC: $ 106.50
- Nation: $ 106
- Santander: $ 106.50
- Patagonia: $ 106.65
- Macro: $ 107
- Itaú: $ 1640
The Dolar blue, which sells for $ 201.50, does not have an official price, but rather its value leaves the average price in places of unofficial exchange.
For its part, the country risk is located at 1,900 basis points.
This is the price of the dollar predicted by economist Aldo Abram six months from now
Given the urgency that the Government has to close the agreement with the IMF, so as not to go into default next year, the panorama facing Argentina is complex.
To analyze the possibilities that the ruling party has, iProfesional resorted to the opinion of the economist Aldo abram, Executive Director of the Fundación Libertad y Progreso.
Among his opinions, the ESEADE professor and researcher also considers that it is “probable” that the minimum conditions agreed with the Monetary Fund “will not be met.” In fact, it expects a relapse of the recovery of the activity for the second half of 2022.
In addition, he projected a come up from wholesale dollar of the 30% six months from now, as a way to reverse the exchange rate lag, which provides for a green ticket close to $ 130 for that date.
-How do you evaluate the current economic situation after the economic measures that the Government took in recent months?
-In pursuit of winning the elections, the Government took some measures that will have an economic and social cost in the future. One of them was to delay the exchange rate, that is, to make it increase much less than the peso had been depreciating, so that the increase in the price of the dollar was not transferred to products. The problem with this is that it implies that the value of their products rises little for the producers of exportable goods, because the US wholesale banknote is anchored and rises less. Instead, its costs rise based on domestic inflation in pesos.
Meanwhile, those who compete with importers lose, because they have a favorable exchange rate of almost $ 100, since it practically does not increase. In contrast, local producers have cost increases in pesos sustained by high inflation. This is bad for the economy and production, and also for the Central Bank, which does not have enough reserves. This is unsustainable and we are going to see, therefore, that in 6 months the wholesale exchange rate will rise about 30%, to overcome the delay that we had in all this time due to the elections. Anyway, there is something certain, which is that when you see the values of the free exchange rates, it has already devalued enough. And, as happened in 2014, when the wholesale exchange rate is devalued, there will be an impact on all the goods in the gondola, impoverishing people.
-This would bring other problems for the economy …
-Yes, the other problem there is tariff delay, which is also unsustainable, due to the large subsidy that exists in the different services, and which is an expense that rises permanently due to inflation. And, at the same time, it complicates public accounts. Then the government will have to make a fiscal adjustment next year, by raising rates for those who use the services and subsidizing those who cannot pay.
And finally, there is a strong increase in inflation, because in the second semester, with the electoral needs of putting “money” in people’s pockets, it began to be broadcasted. For what is around the 35% increase in issuance so far in the second part of the year. In other words, there is pressure for a much greater depreciation of the peso due to the money supply and the lower demand for pesos. Something that pushes inflation up, and that has been contained in a certain way with the price freeze.
Monetary policy and what to do with the dollar are some of the great problems that the Government must urgently solve.
-Justo mentioned inflation, which returned to show alarming data. What can happen to the price march?
–Unfortunately, inflation will be increasing in the coming months, which will result in greater aggressiveness by the Government in trying to control prices, when in reality it is the ruling party itself that generates the rise through the depreciation of the currency. And, on the other hand, the recovery of the economy is expected to slow down in the coming months. Probably, in the second half of 2022 there is a drop in activity, which will mean less recovery.
In addition, international prices are falling, which represents a lower value of exports and income from less currency. So we are far from the export levels of 2019. Then, there will be less collection, beyond the battery of new taxes that the ruling party will be adding, such as packaging, which is outrageous. They need money to keep spending.
-How do you see that the agreement with the International Monetary Fund can be implemented?
-I think we’re going to close an agreement with the Monetary Fund with a plan of minimum fiscal, monetary and exchange conditions that, it is probable, they are not going to be fulfilled. It is that the necessary structural reforms will not be carried out, so we will enter a recession in the second half of next year, hopefully. In fact, the agreement may bring some optimism and some recovery, but soon the market will realize that none of the underlying problems have been resolved.
Hence, a new credibility crisis, something that is channeled through parallel exchange rates. In summary, the gap will grow between wholesaler and blue above this year’s level, and may approach the 150% at the end of 2022.
-An issue that flies over the market and is quite uncertain has to do with the dollars that the Central Bank has available, as firepower. Until when do the reserves last?
–The Central Bank does not have many net reserves to continue delaying, among other things, the agreement with the Monetary Fund, so it will have to close it before March, because that month more than u $ s5,000 million are due with the IMF itself and the Paris Club, which cannot be refinanced. In fact, by that date (March) the net reserves will already be bottoming out or at negative levels, so that it will be unfeasible to sustain the exchange rate delay.
With which, the wholesale exchange rate should tend to rise, so that they stop draining the reserves. In itself, it will have to increase the price of this dollar due to the large number of commitments that will have to be canceled at the beginning of 2022, beyond refinancing with these organizations.
The fall in net reserves that the Central Bank has, in an environment of greater exchange rate, worries analysts.
– Only with devaluation will it reach the Government?
-In time, as long as credibility is not recovered, I believe that the Government will have each time less chance from refinance your debt in the voluntary market. In addition, the Central Bank will not have room to expand its remunerated debt, I do not even consider that it will be able to refinance its interests, so that next year the monetary financing of the BCRA to the Treasury may increase. Therefore, in the second half of 2022, inflation may remain above 3% per month. So we are talking in levels of 60% floor inflation for the whole year to come.
-Is the next few months complicated for the economy then?
–If this Government does not structural reforms what he has to do, and does not face them in 2022, he may suffer the same crisis that the Cambiemos administration had. And with a disadvantage, because this government has much less credibility than the previous one (Macri), with which it does not have much more room to delay the strategy after the agreement with the Monetary Fund. Let’s not forget that the level of financing that this government has is much lower than that of Cambiemos, and the productive sector is more burdened.
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