Alberto Fernández gets angry, quite frequently and frequently, at the demands for a more pronounced opening of the quarantine, especially if they are made by opponents or publicly by the business community. Conversely, it registers the resistance and precautions of governors and mayors with the highest risk of contagion in their districts. Different positions are not exhausted there. In the last hours, the crossed message was reiterated from its own neighborhoods. Cristina Fernández de Kirchner with its harsh warnings about flexibility. And Martín Guzmán with suggestive reserved exhibition on the economic picture, alluding in fact to the time limits of isolation and its impact on the economy.
The Guzmán thing is striking for the place it occupies and for the profile it cares for. From the beginning, Alberto Fernández placed him in a privileged and at the same time delicate place: the debt was raised as his central and even exclusive task. Everything was tied to that goal until the arrival of the coronavirus. The debt, however, continued to be the exclusive subject of the minister and the President. CFK showed its support for the management. Sergio Massa and other references expressed support. Tensions, of course, never go away.
Guzmán thus coexists with an acknowledgment of his unique position. He seems a kind of untouchable with backing throughout the official line – despite the annoyances of some colleagues, “Albertists” and others – and at the same time he is tied to a specific issue and in a short and pressing time, a unique and effective test : arm wrestling with creditors. They say that shielded in that task he has allowed himself to be unfriendly to some interlocutors of the ruling cast. And it even came to curb orders of governors considered vital in the political construction of the President.
For a few days, according to sources linked to the cabinet, Guzmán was exposing a certain profile change. With some irony but to illustrate, they say something like that is going from debt minister to economy minister. And they add that he himself reveals that he would be working on the prospect of an agreement on the external front and of a post-coronavirus scenario, including an outline of tax reform.
For now, the minister would have warned about the time limits of the quarantine table with strong paralysis of productive activities. In tune with the document that was circulated in the midst of the strike with the main creditors, he projected to his colleagues in the economic cabinet a drop of about 7% of GDP for this year. That figure is no longer astonishing: it circulates as a moving forecast among private consultants, some of whom they stretch it up to 10 points. They say that the minister would also have highlighted the persistent and strong drop in collection, with its consequences also for the provinces, and the lousy indicators of different branches of production.
More notable as a limiting projection would have been the references to Central Bank policies – which would feed the versions on tensions not exceeded with Miguel Angel Pesce- and at the level of monetary issue, unsustainable if the current table were to be extended beyond two months. This is a worrying signal in view of the assistance measures that have been available with more or less success from the State.
Of course, the sources clarify, the minister would not have presented a direct evaluation of the quarantine’s political decision. But his exposition would not be a minor fact for the renewed challenge of having an extension of isolation, with exceptions, geographically segmented, controlled and limited in provinces with the highest number of infections and especially in large urban centers. That in turn has an implicit limitation: are the districts with the highest economic weight.
Some of these would have been part of the extensive meeting they had on Wednesday in Olivos, Alberto Fernández and CFK. The march of debt talks, the impact of releases and quarantine They would have been the main items of the appointment, as circulated in different official media more by common sense than with information. If the goal was dispel shadows and drive away ghosts about the relationship between President and vice, as usual spokesmen spread, it seemed the reverse effect. The hermeticism that covered the appointment triggered speculation of all kinds, from severe questioning of front-line officials to judicial issues of interest to the former president.
For a long time, the special care of CFK has been known on the management of Kicillof and its own mayors, particularly those of Greater Buenos Aires. The former president has been dedicating part of her agenda to conversations with local chiefs, in addition to permanent contact with the governor and direct conversations with some provincial officials.
CFK’s position on the coronavirus issue would be forceful in that regard: poses to be very careful in opening the quarantine. Any mistake, as happened with the remembered queues of retirees, can have high cost. By way of showy, that episode of massive waiting for retirees and beneficiaries of social assistance – and its possible impact on infections – has just been highlighted by Verónica Magario, vice-governor and leader of La Matanza.
The President heard that CFK refractory position to the wide flexibilization in the Province. At the same time, Kicillof and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta have already established a position and discussed it again in their contacts with Olivos this week. Evaluate the delicate situation in the metropolitan area, with flexibilities in fact, and they focus on the most vulnerable neighborhoods.
The calendar runs in every direction. There are signs of exhaustion, but also the first cold. The limits, wherever you look, are narrow.
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