Due to the weather, Córdoba already loses 17 million tons of grains and will have the worst harvest in 11 years

The agricultural producers of Córdoba will sadly remember the current grain campaign as the one of contrasting climatic phenomena and, unfortunately, all detrimental to production.

It is that the lack of water and the high temperatures that governed a good part of the spring and summer formed a scenario of drought that was aggravated by the presence of an exceptional event for that time of the year: the frost registered on February 18.

This combo was lethal for agricultural production. According to a report prepared by the Department of Agricultural Information (DIA) of the Cordoba Grain Exchange (BCCBA), the harvest of soybeans, corn, wheat, peanuts, sunflower and sorghum in the province will be 21.27 million tons.

The volume represents a drop of 43% compared to the previous season, when the combines had collected 37.2 million tons. This is a loss of 17 million tons and places Cordoba production at the lowest since the last 11 years, according to BCCBA data.

You have to go back to the 2011/2012 campaign to see a lower figure, when 18,900 million tons were collected.

“March began with a deterioration in the condition of the crops, which explains the successive cuts in the production of corn, soybeans, sorghum and peanuts. ️If the environmental conditions are not immediately reversed, greater drops in yield, area to be harvested, and production are expected,” the BCCBA warned.

“The gross value of production would fall to the lowest value in five campaigns and represent U$S 7 billion less compared to the previous campaign. With normal yields, production could have exceeded 41 million tons, but would only reach just over 21 million tons. In this context, the gross value of provincial production would be U$S 7,700 million less compared to the potential”, dimensioned Gonzalo Agusto, chief economist of the Department of Economy, through a report by the BCCBA.

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If the weather had been normal and from the potential production of Córdoba, based on average yields, the current campaign could have contributed more than 41 million tons, according to the BCCBA, with a gross value of record production of US$ 16. billion.

“In this way, the losses with respect to the potential exceed 20 million tons for a value of US$ 7,700 million,” said the report.

In this context, the gross value of production for 2022/2023 would reach US$8.3 billion, which represents a drop of US$7 billion less than the previous season. It is the lowest contribution in the last five campaigns and is more than US$1.7 billion below the historical average, which, according to the BCCBA, is US$10.1 billion.

Gross income from the harvest, discounting export duties and marketing expenses, would be US$ 5.9 billion, almost half that of the previous campaign, when the amount of dollars left among the actors in the production process was US$ 10,972 million.

The drop in production, grain by grain

The report carried out during the first fortnight of March, through the contribution of the network of DIA collaborators of the stock exchange entity and reference technicians distributed throughout the province who provided zonal data, shows that corn will continue to be the main productive crop in Córdoba .

With a yield up to now of 56.2 quintals per hectare, the 2,298 million hectares that are available for harvest (31% less than those planted) will contribute with a harvest of 12.9 million tons. It represents a drop of 36% compared to the previous campaign.

Soybean will be the crop that feels the impact of the climate the most so far.

The area to be harvested was reduced by 825 thousand tons and the production volume would be 6.4 million tons, 45% less than in the previous season, when 11.60 million tons were harvested.

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Another crop that reflects a reduction in all its productive indicators is peanuts. Planting of 249,900 hectares already showed a 15% drop compared to the previous season. Due to the weather, the harvest area was reduced by 13,600 hectares, so the production estimate is 436,100 tons of clean and dry grain, 32% less compared to the 639,000 tons of the previous season.

Sunflower is the only grain that will have higher production this season than in the previous one, explained by its larger planted area. With 92,700 hectares planted in the province, 30% more than in the previous agricultural cycle, and 5,500 hectares lost, production is estimated at 167,600 tons. It represents an increase of only 6% more than those produced in the previous harvest, when the volume was 158 thousand tons.

Of the summer crops, it was the only one that, until the preparation of the report, had begun with its harvest, with an advance of 30%.

Sorghum closes the list of summer productions with an estimate of 268,800 tons, 39% less than in the previous season.

The 2022/2023 agricultural calendar had started with the wheat harvest. The cereal contributed 1,044 million hectares to the province, 74% less than last season, when the harvest of gleaning reached 4,055 million tons.

The fall in the economic contribution, grain by grain

According to the calculations of the BCCBA, the crop that would lose the most with respect to its potential in Córdoba is corn with more than US$ 3,400 million, followed by soybeans with losses of US$ 2,825 million; wheat, with US$754 million and peanuts, with US$565 million.

The lower economic income that crops would provide would have a negative impact on the different sectors of the provincial economy, if one takes into account – specifies the BCCBA – that the agro-industrial chain represents 31% of the Gross Geographic Product of Córdoba.

“The U$S 7,700 million that agricultural production will not contribute is equivalent to the value of 64,400 one-bedroom apartments in Nueva Córdoba, one of the neighborhoods where the value per square meter is one of the most expensive in the capital city of the Province; to 172,000 double-cab 4×4 trucks or to the demand of 11,300 harvesters”, the report graphed.

In this sense, a lower than potential production implies less economic activity in the interior, which would materialize in 660,000 fewer trips by truck to the different transformation centers or the port.

“For the provincial treasury, it implies less income of more than $10.8 billion, which is equivalent to two new equipped provincial maternity hospitals or 3,430 social homes,” compared the report of the BCCBA Department of Economy.

Due to the dimension and importance of agriculture in the economic and social structure of the province, “the productive catastrophe in Córdoba, and in Argentina in general”, -says the entity- generates a negative impact for regional economies.

In addition, the lower production will affect the income of foreign currency for the country, as a consequence of lower exports.