By category and by province: how quarantine impacts the private sector

Be it electricity, natural gas or some other type of source, any activity needs energy to be able to be carried out.

For this reason, energy consumption is an indicator that allows projecting the impact that the quarantine that is paralyzing much of the Argentine economy is having, in the framework of actions to prevent the Covid-19 pandemic.

In this sense, the researcher Jorge Day of the Institute of Studies (Ieral) of the Mediterranean Foundation developed a ranking by sectors based on the energy demand accumulated between March 20 and April 13, compared with the stretch between the March 1 and 19, according to data from the Electricity Wholesale Market Management Company (Cammesa).

The result is that the industries that fell the most are automotive, metallurgical, textile and construction, with 70 percent.

Commerce follows with 50 percent; the wood, mineral extraction, chemical, refining and port industries, with between 40 percent and 20 percent; and there are only three sectors with a decrease of less than 20 percent: public services, food and hydrocarbon extraction.

By provinces

On the other hand, considering the impact by sector, its territorial distribution and its participation in the Gross Geographical Product (PBG), Day constructed an indicator of regional vulnerability of the private sector in this context.

This indicator takes into account, for each sector, its participation in the provincial economy and its probable drop in sales during the current quarantine.

It follows that the provinces most affected by the crisis and quarantine, so far, would be the City of Buenos Aires, Santa Fe, Córdoba, Chaco, Neuquén and Chubut.

La Pampa, Corrientes, Santiago del Estero, Salta, Tierra del Fuego and Rio Negro continue with a somewhat lower incidence, but are also very significant.

According to Day’s evaluation, Córdoba is the province most affected due to the relevance of construction and the high weight of non-food industries (such as the automotive and metal-mechanic industries), something common to the entire Pampas region.

In any case, he clarifies that the positive impact that agricultural production may be harvesting is not contemplated, because the activity has just begun.