In the wholesale segment, the US currency starts the wheel at $ 99.33 always under the watchful eye of the Central Bank (BCRA)
The Dolar blue trades this Wednesday stable and gets to $ 187.5 for the selling point in the caves of the Buenos Aires City.
In this way, the currency in the informal market reached the maximum price of the year in that sector, of $ 187.5. The nominal historical record of the blue dollar was registered on October 23, 2020, when the price shot up to $ 195, a value that it did not touch again.
In this context, investors carefully watch the evolution of the stock prices of the dollar.
For example, the Dollar Stock Exchange, or MEP, is located around the $ 179.14.
Meanwhile, the dollar counted with clearance trades to $ 180.76.
As noted above, the Dolar blue is offered to $ 187.5 in caves of downtown Buenos Aires.
In recent days the Central Bank had managed to buy dollars in the market
For its part, in the wholesale segment, the US currency starts the round at $ 99.33, always under the watchful eye of the Central Bank (BCRA).
At official retail market, the North American currency operates at an average of $ 104.88 in agencies and banks in the city of Buenos Aires, so the saving dollar, which is calculated with the surcharge of 30% of the PAÍS tax plus 35% of the income tax, sells for around $ 173.
According to the usual survey carried out by the central bank Among the main financial entities that operate in the City, these are the sale prices of the official retail dollar:
- ICBC: $ 105
- Nation: $ 104.75
- Santander: $ 104.50
- Supervielle: $ 105
- Macro: $ 105
- Itaú: $ 104.80
The Dolar blue, which is sold at $ 187.5, does not have an official price, but its value leaves the average price in places of unofficial exchange.
For his part, Argentina country risk it stands at 1,639 basis points.
The question that the market is asking today, a few weeks before the elections: is the blue dollar expensive or cheap?
For exactly one month, the Dolar blue trades around $ 185 to $ 187, after another similar period of time in which it was located at $ 182 on average. Under another economic and political context, even more so after the STEP, it could be said that the variation in the price could respond to a form of adjustment for inflation, since it was around 2.7%, in line with the increase registered by the CPI .
But given the succession of events that took place after August 14, everything suggests that at certain times the well-known “friendly hands” appeared at certain times, allowing a ceiling to be placed on prices to avoid greater evils.
Putting aside these kinds of suspicions, It is evident that the tensions in the exchange market do not subside and, on the contrary, are exacerbated, especially as a result of the new controls, both with regard to the provision of foreign exchange destined to the import as well as the restriction of access to channels known as dollar MEP or counted on settlement.
The blue dollar is under the market magnifying glass ahead of the elections
In this context, it is interesting to compare the current price, which is around $ 185 with the maximum level reached in October last year, when it set a nominal record of 195 pesos.
But beyond that value, it should not be forgotten that in the last year retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, climbed no less than close to 50%.
So, if this percentage were applied to the price reached on that October 23, the resulting price today would be around $ 290, that is, 56% more than the current one. Or, put another way, it would be located no less than $ 105 above that which is registered these days.
The restrictions promise to add more pressure to the parallel market
But beyond this potential ceiling, if the closing prices of each month from the beginning of the pandemic to the present are taken into account and adjusted for the variation in retail prices, the following conclusion is reached: in the presence of lowest blue dollar of the entire series Except for the March-May quarter of this year.
If the average price of this entire series is calculated, this would be slightly higher than $ 200, that is, almost 10% above the current one, but if the calculation is summarized to the period between April of last year and February 2021, its price climbs to 218 pesos.
There is only some relief in the prices in the aforementioned quarter, as the adjusted price fell to $ 177, that is, only about $ 8 less than the current one. But from June to September the trend was reversed, as the price advanced to $ 190, at current values, adjusted for inflation.
Precisely, this data is what savers and operators are looking at, who choose to continue to dollarize their portfolios in view of the proximity of the legislative elections in November.
As for the certain possibilities that the Government has to stop the rise, beyond the occasional presence of friendly hands and that the gap is not so high, what it has to do or rather stop doing, is to issue currency.
It is clear that the best measure to control the exchange rate is to control what is issued. As long as that is not done, everything else is patches that do not attack the underlying problem.
Amilcar Collante, economist at the Center for Economic Studies of the South (Cesur), agreed that if compared with historical levels, the current price of the parallel ticket is located close to the prices in force after the exit from convertibility.
For his part, Collante said that “there is a lot to go up in a panic scenario, such as that of October last year, but on the contrary, if the Government managed to anchor expectations, it could stabilize or even lower. But if it continues to issue uncontrollably to cover the deficit, the monetary base becomes very expansive and at some point it will impact the dollar. “
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