After the outbreak of the crisis, the Government recognizes that Guzmán will now be imposed conditions to continue to lead the economic portfolio
Was it a political miscalculation of Martin Guzman, who thought he had wider shoulders to impose his decisions in the cabinet? Or an accurate counterattack of hard-line Kirchnerism, which has been demanding bolder measures from the minister for a long time? Or both simultaneously?
For the first time since the political crisis erupted around the young minister, the Casa Rosada reports a mix of reasons. That, regardless of the outcome that Federico Basualdo’s fate will have, until now an unknown Undersecretary of Energy, heor more likely it is that Guzmán – now yes – will have conditions to continue at the head of the economic portfolio.
That is what happened in the last hours: Kirchnerism of “black palate” took advantage of Guzmán’s political shake to deploy the base of conditions. Measures that until now the minister had been resisting but that have now been placed in public light.
In the last hours, from the economic powerhouses of Kirchnerism they let transcend what for these economists is a strong settling the scores public that, silently, Guzmán is carrying out. Data that are unobjectionable since they are public.
For example, with regard to pension spending and the AUH -which encompasses neither more nor less than 60% of State spending-, a loss of 7% was recorded in real terms during the first quarter of the year. In other words, expenditures on retirements, pensions and the largest social program that the country has grew well below inflation.
Worse was public wages, which are on track to have the fourth consecutive year of real adjustment. Lower purchasing power.
In this case, the real adjustment was 14% year-on-year -also between January and March- since while public administration salaries grew 14.5%, inflation for the last year was 42.6%.
The only thing that stood out was energy subsidies, which already rose 77% in the first quarter – compared to last year – well above inflation. In fact, those subsidies represent about $ 45,000 million per month. Hence Guzmán’s desperation to raise rates as quickly as possible.
From La Cámpora they consider it essential that the IFE continue
From the Institute Homeland they put their eye on the fiscal result of this first part of the year. “The first quarter produced the lowest financial result in the last six years,” highlighted the latest official statement from the Palacio de Hacienda on public accounts.
“How can it be that Guzman boast of reduce the deficit fiscal in the middle of a second wave of coronavirus infections? We must assist people and SMEs, “argues a reference to” hard “Kirchnerism.
The referent of La Cámpora “Cuervo” Larroque put the discussion in white on black during noon on Monday. “It is essential that the IFE continue and we believe that we must convert these instances into policies so that they do not receive any kind of questioning, “argued Larroque, Minister of Social Development for Kicillof in the province of Buenos Aires.
“Any person who proves need requires the presence of the State. We have to establish a level of dignity and end, at least, with extreme poverty,” added the official.
Will there be an emergency IFE for the AMBA?
Until now, Guzmán has rejected the idea of a new assistance, similar to the one that last year reached almost nine million people ($ 10,000 each) during three deliveries.
That monthly expenditure from $ 90,000 million is the one that the minister cut in august 2020. But now from La Cámpora they preach for it to recover in the areas most affected by the second wave, starting with the Metropolitan area. Or, at most, in the suburbs.
To bring the IFE to the AMBA, Guzmán would require about $ 40,000 million for each distribution cycle.
Another possibility under analysis refers to a new installment of the $ 15,000 bond, which reaches 960,000 people and is still being distributed.
The Minister of Social Development, Daniel Arroyo, anticipated that the Government analyzes “pay a second installment of the $ 15,000 bond for the extension of the restrictive measures.”
The beneficiaries of this bonus are the holders of the Universal Child Allowance (AUH), women who receive the Universal Allowance for Pregnancy (AUE) and monotax A and B recipients who receive Family Allowances.
“The situation is critical, we are closely monitoring the health situation and if this worsens obviously we are going to take extraordinary measures,” Arroyo said on Monday afternoon.
The third chapter of pandemic aid has to do with a reinforcement of Repro II, which this month will reach some 10,000 companies to pay part of 400,000 salaries, with a ceiling of $ 18,000 for companies in critical sectors (tourism, gastronomy and shopping malls, among other sectors).
The idea that they leave to transcend from the Instituto Patria highlights the need to increase this relief for SMEs that are having a hard time due to the resurgence of the pandemic. “Many people are taking care of themselves and, logically, they go out less and consume less. We were already coming from a difficult time for mass consumption, and this scenario worsened in the last two weeks,” argues the source, a renowned economist K .
“It would be necessary to return to a more generous ATP (payment of complementary salaries), for at least a minimum wage and a half“, which today would reach about $ 35,000 per month, double what the Repro II delivers, at most.
After the outbreak of the crisis, the Government recognizes that Guzmán will now be imposed conditions
The minister has already made clear his position on the possibility of a increase in public spending. And his warning about the firm possibility that this greater fiscal effort will lead to an undesirable jump in the exchange rate.
He argued, in this regard, a few weeks ago when he was consulted on television: “That the State subsidizes us a good part of the rate means that it is paid in some way: with taxes, or taking debt and that always ends with a problem, or you have to issue. And part of that issue ends up putting pressure on the exchange rate. ”
In the next few hours, when the AFIP will surely announce a strong increase in the collection of April (due to the fact that the economy was off during April 2020 and the income of some $ 220,000 million from the contribution to wealth exceeding $ 200 million), the The hard wing of Kirchnerism will have more arguments to demand more audacity from Guzmán.
They will insist with the idea that while countries are increasing their expenditures to face the pandemic, the Argentina crosses -on the contrary- a ordering his accounts public.
A step in that sense was already taken last week by the PJ senators’ bloc led by Cristina Kirchner. It was when they demanded, through an official letter, that Guzmán allocate the US $ 4,400 million that enter the country through the capitalization of the IMF to face the crisis caused by the pandemic. And not to pay their due dates with international organizations.
What will be the next steps for the administration? As almost always happens in troubled Argentina, destinies are played out on a day-to-day basis, in a dynamic that is unpredictable even for the protagonists themselves.