Since they “reassured” the dollar, they have earned 32% in hard currency. In recent years they came lost but the current exchange rate promotes the boom
While the Government has new restrictions due to the increase in cases of COVID19, investors continue to account for which assets or strategies are profitable. It is known that debt bonds are still ostracized and country risk rose again to 1,609 points. The only thing that moves the needle is the return of the “financial bike“, once reviled by Kirchnerism, which is leaving succulent profits for investors.
According to the economist’s calculations Nery persichini, the carry trade or “financial bicycle” with the fixed term does not stop. So far this year, betting on placements in pesos taking the Badlar rate (the wholesale rate stipulated by the Central Bank) it is earning 5.2% in dollars and almost 21% since the end of October (when the financial dollar was encapsulated).
He earned 32% in dollars doing the financial bicycle since last October.
The dollar profit, when bonds in the same currency lose 30% since October and the financial exchange rate (the only one that can be freely bought) rises 2.5% or 6% (depending on the MEP or CCL).
“The carry trade It was quite long, the dollar was ironed for several months, with interesting yields in pesos, “he says. Nicolas Chiesa, Director of Portfolio Personal Investments (PPI).
And I add: “The carry trade it is still very attractive. But you have to do it very cautiously and be ready to quickly reverse the position if necessary.. Let’s not forget that when the dollar moves, it does so with a sharp and rapid movement, and it can erase the gains from the carry trade. However, if one is going to be in the day to day of the investment, the rate in pesos taken advantage of while the dollar is calm, is something very valid, “he said.
The National deputy for Cambiemos and economist Luciano laspina left in networks another example of how, knowing how to do it, the “carry trade“It leaves great profits.” Investors who sold dollars in cash with settlement to enter the CER-adjusted peso bond tender on October 27, 2020 gained 32.9% in dollars in 5 months, or 110% annualized . Tell me about the carry trade, “he wrote on his Twitter account.
Deputy Luciano Laspina chicaneized Fernández’s new financial “bicycle” online.
The business that returns in the K era
Of course, these bets in the market are conditional on the financial dollar not overheating. For now, it seems that the movements are limited. The CCL and the MEP are ironed but the noise due to the new restrictions and – later – the elections (with the PASO first, if there were in August) would add more temperature to the dollar.
The record marks that doing the financial “bicycle” is not for everyone. In Argentina, during the first years of macrismo it was very lucrative to do it with the Lebac (the letters of the BCRA). But quickly the uncontrolled devaluation as of 2018 pulverized any intention of investors (many from abroad) to earn in dollars by betting on assets in pesos.
In 2018, more than 30% was lost in hard currency betting on the carry trade. A year later, with the post PASO megadevaluation, they were left empty-handed again: 17.2% were lost. With the government of Alberto Fernández in office, it was not appropriate to play this operation either.
In 2020, the year of the pandemic, they lost 29% due to the explosive rise in financial dollars. Just about the end of last year and this, with the exchange rate achieved at the point of stocks and interventions in the CCL selling bonds, making the “bicycle” became a business again. For how long?
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