In the wholesale segment, the US currency ended the week at 90.37 pesos, always under the watchful eye of the Central Bank
ANDl Dolar blue traded this Friday stable and was achieved $ 144 in the selling point, in caves of the Buenos Aires microcenter.
Investors, meanwhile, looked closely at stock prices, which are also falling.
The dollar counted with clearance traded at $ 147.73.
For his part, Dollar Stock Exchange, or MEP, was around $ 145.87.
As noted above, the Dolar blue offered to $ 144 in caves of downtown Buenos Aires.
In turn, in the wholesale segment, the US currency closed the wheel at $ 90.37, always under the watchful eye of the Central Bank (BCRA).
At official retail market, the North American currency operated at an average of $ 95.68 in agencies and banks of the city of Buenos Aires, so the saving dollar, which is calculated with the surcharge of 30% of the PAÍS tax plus 35% of the income tax, was sold for around $ 157.88.
According to the usual survey carried out by the central bank Among the main financial entities that operated in the City, these were the sale prices of the official retail dollar:
– Galicia: $ 96.10
– Nation: $ 95
– Santander: $ 96
– Patagonia: $ 96.30
– Macro: $ 95.50
– Itaú: $ 95.80
The Dolar blue, which was sold at $ 144, does not have an official price, but its value leaves the average price in places of unofficial exchange.
For his part, Argentina country risk it was located at 1,587 basis points.
The blue dollar suddenly began to rise: isolated movement or trend reversal?
Last week, the blue dollar closed higher after several days down and this Monday also showed a rise in its price, which took it to $ 147 (still a peso below what it was worth a week ago).
It can be a simple temporary variation or a trend reversal, it is difficult to diagnose. So, iProfessional He spoke with some economists about this situation to try to understand what is happening and what to expect for the next few months.
For Federico Furiase, director of EcoGo, “what we see now is a rearrangement at the $ 148 / $ 150 levels we had before. “
Meanwhile, Camilo Tiscornia, director of CyT Asesores Econónicos, believes that “the drop in the blue that occurred during February is abnormal behavior.” As he explains, the illegal dollar became unusually low and he foresees that, from now on, he will settle on a higher level and that he considers as “more logical“.
In this scenario, Fury anticipates that we can get to see a blue dollar close to $ 155 In the next weeks. And he anticipates that, “if that happens, we will surely see a more concerned BCRA selling AL30 against pesos and buying them against dollars to try to lower the gap, which is its main objective.”
The inflow of foreign currency from the liquidation of crops gives the BCRA ammunition to keep the parallel market calm
Beyond the blue dollar: a market closely tied to other prices
It happens that, as explained by Claudio Caprarulo, chief economist at Analytica Consultores, “the blue dollar is traded in a small market with very little volume” and Its price today is arbitrated by what happens with the exchange rate that arises from the counting with settlement (CCL), the MEP dollar and the solidarity dollar.
In this sense, he comments that, since its peak in October, the CCL fell 20% and is around $ 150 since November, below the exchange rate that arises from applying to the official quotation, the PAIS tax and the withholding of earnings. , which gives a total of $ 155 per dollar. “This is due, as the main factor, to the high demand for pesos that seasonally occurs in December and January. Although in February it tends to drop, the drop plus pronounced It is given in March“, describes Caprarulo.
Likewise, the seasonality in the demand for money was accompanied by a higher liquidation of agricultural dollars in recent months, which – due to high international prices – was above the average of recent years. This allowed the BCRA to accumulate reserves of almost US $ 900 million between December and January. “This slight improvement in international bookings also helped narrow the gap between the official exchange rate and the parallels “, points out the Chapter.
And adds that The statements of Minister Guzmán in which he reported that his objective is to respect the target exchange rate for December of $ 102 that appears in the budget, also implied a fall in the price of the future dollar as of June 2021, which went from $ 106.6 at the end of January to $ 101.8 on February 18.
The blue market is closely linked to what happens with financial dollars
Broadcasting and politics: key issues
For his part, Tiscornia points out that, “in Argentina, there has been a very high monetary issue last year, which always occurs, but which, usually, the BCRA usually collects a little in January and February and did not do so in 2021 “.
For this reason, he considers that there is a lot of liquidity going around and interest rates are not attractive today for savers to choose to bet on a fixed term (the Badlar is at 34%, which gives less than 3% per month and inflation is higher than that percentage).
To the described, Tiscornia adds the political climate that outlines the expectations of the markets and, in this sense, he mentions that “the issue of the Vip Vaccination, the president’s speech at the opening of Congress sessions, which was somewhat harsh, and the uncertainty in the negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are elements that a bad outlook regarding the direction of the Government “, which may lead to a climate of tension that encourages movements in the parallel market of the dollar.
The political element and the president’s speech affect expectations for the country and affect the exchange market.
Dollar blue: what will come after “summer”
“I think exchange rate gaps will tend to widen throughout the year, although the Government is going to try to contain them “, maintains the economist.
And, Caprarulo agrees that there will be a tendency to overheat that difference between the different prices of the dollar over the next few months.
He warns that, “along with this summer in the parallel dollar, so far this year, the country risk increased 114 basis points and it is a sign that the market is discounting that there are still no changes in expectations that allow estimate that the exchange rate is here to stay “.
Thus, Furiase points out that, although it is still not possible to speak of a reversal of the downward trend of blue, a rearrangement and anticipates that it is to be expected that “there may be higher risk of heating gap in the months of July to October, in which we will probably see a Central Bank slowing down the evolution of the price of the dollar to keep it anchored in the face of the elections and in which the liquidation of the heavy harvest is over “.
That, he warns, will make the BCRA have less ammunition to continue buying the AL30 bond and then it will be more difficult to keep the gap at bay.
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