In the parallel market the currency was offered stable. Look at the price of the blue dollar today and how the dollar is priced Stock market and cash with settlement
He Dolar blue It traded stable this Friday and it was obtained at $ 159 for the selling point in caves in downtown Buenos Aires.
This occurred in an already relaxed scenario after the abrupt movements that the price had during the last days of December.
In a “financial summertime” context, investors also closely watch stock prices.
The dollar counted with clearance it is trading at $ 146.63.
For his part, Dollar Stock Exchange, or MEP, is around $ 148.83.
As noted above, the Dolar blue offered to $ 159 in caves in downtown Buenos Aires.
In turn, in the wholesale segment, the US currency closed the wheel at $ 85.74, always under the watchful eye of the Central Bank (BCRA).
At official retail market, the North American currency operated at an average of $ 91.14 in agencies and banks of the city of Buenos Aires, so the saving dollar, which is calculated with the surcharge of 30% of the PAÍS tax plus 35% of the income tax, was sold for around $ 150.40.
According to the usual survey carried out by the central bank Among the main financial entities that operated in the City, these were the sale prices of the official retail dollar:
– Galicia: $ 91.50
– Nation: $ 90.75
– Santander: $ 91
– Patagonia: $ 91.25
– Itaú: $ 91.10
– Macro: $ 91
He Dolar blue, which was located at $ 159, does not have an official price, but its value leaves the average price in places of unofficial exchange.
For his part, Argentina’s country risk it stood at 1,459 basis points.
The blue dollar did not explode in the end: is the government winning the game?
After a period of decline, the price of the blue dollar or parallel rose $ 1 and settled at $ 160. This situation of exchange rate calm produces what the Russian formalists called “estrangement” for an average Argentine, accustomed in recent years to a dizzying bullish pace for the US currency in the illegal or free market, as many choose to call it.
Why did it stop and even back down if all analysts were predicting a rise unavoidable after higher demand for pesos in December?
Analysts have an explanation, which, as expected, does not respond to a single element, but has several components. Matías Rajnerman, chief economist at Ecolatina, observes in dialogue with iProfessional that one of the factors that pushed it down is that basically “the blue was expensive“He points out that, although when a bubble is entered, the historical reference does not matter, $ 160 is a high value.
Another key element for him is that the Government began to buy back reserves and that lowered expectations of devaluation. “The current administration has been changing the policy, especially since November, and sent some signs of greater austerity to the market. This brought an improvement and altered the dynamics of the dollar,” he says.
In a similar sense, Federico Furiase, director of Estudio EcoGo, affirms that the BCRA is maintaining the pressure of the gap through a strategy that combines the sale of bonds against pesos and the increase in restrictions to the dollar bonds.
“The seasonal increase in demand for pesos in December is being disarmed, with an interest rate that rises by ladder while inflation expectations rise by elevator and an agreement with the International Monetary Fund that is delayed. All this creates pressure on the exchange rate gap and that makes the Government have to raise the rate. Thus, the BCRA is forced to increase the sale of bonds in dollars against pesos, which then buy back in dollars, “he details.
The favorable global context
Another variable that affects blue is the famous external front. “We continue to believe that the international context is key for the dollar in Argentina. And it has been favorable for months, with low rates and commodities on the rise. This puts a ceiling on the price of the parallel “, says Santiago López Alfaro, president and partner of Patente de Valores.
But he also recognizes that what the Government is doing has also paid off, since “regulation, the drop in parking and other measures calmed the square.” Thus, for this economist, the situation of tranquility in the price of the blue banknote is, “in part, success of the Government and, in another percentage, international context.”
Similarly, Sergio Morales, director of Interfinance, believes that “the very favorable international context for agriculture, added that we are going through a period of low demand for money for seasonal reasons and the purchase of dollars for their coffers by the BCRA, have calmed down temporarily the devaluation expectations From the market”.
This, according to the financial advisor, is in addition to the fact that, at the end of last December, companies and businesses that had been dollarized during 2020 began to liquidate their holdings to meet obligations (mainly, salaries, bonuses and staff vacations). This caused a downward pressure on the price of foreign currency that was strengthened by the international context.
Blue dollar: what’s coming
Looking ahead to the next few months, experts agree that, despite circumstantial optimism, the Government is winning a battle but not the war against the dollar. “They know that they cannot afford to neglect the evolution of the different exchange rates. For this reason, reduced the parking of bonds for the purchase of MEP dollars, so that the market itself is the one who arbitrates between the different prices of dollars in the economy and thus achieve greater control and stability, “Morales warns.
Rajnerman, for his part, warns about the existence of what he defines as “the big question”: what will happen with Covid-19. “If there is a strong impact of the virus again, the credits of Assistance for Work and Production (ATP) will be needed again and collection may fall and that would make the need to broadcast again more likely, which would boost the dollar up, “he describes.
He thinks that the price of the parallel will register rises in the next monthsmainly due to the scenario of the uncertainty That generates the fact that we come from a year with a record of monetary issuance, with high inflation and in which it must meet strong obligations in foreign currency with the IMF and the Paris Club. If one takes into account that the country today does not have those dollars, it is to be expected that times of tough negotiations and uncertain times will come.
Fury notes that, “for being a year electoral, it will present a strong restriction policy that will become visible, mainly, in the difficulty to unfreeze rates“.
This makes noise in the agreement with the fund and in the fiscal consolidation process and can also affect the exchange rate gap.
However, beyond these forecasts of uncertainty, all the experts acknowledge that, as the Ecolatina economist points out, “today the currency is a little less out of control than before”, which is good news.
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