In the parallel market the currency is offered at $ 162. Look at the price of the blue dollar today and how the dollar is priced Stock market and cash with settlement
He Dolar blue trades this Friday, January 8 at $ 155 for the purchase and $ 162 for the selling point in caves in the downtown area of Buenos Aires.
This occurs in a scenario still tense due to the abrupt movement of the price during the last days of December.
In a context of doubts about the blue dollar, investors are also watching closely the stock prices, which rose slightly.
The dollar counted with clearance It is trading at $ 145.29.
For his part, Dollar Stock Exchange, or MEP, is around $ 145.84.
As noted above, the Dolar blue is offered to $ 162 in caves in downtown Buenos Aires.
In turn, in the wholesale segment, the US currency starts the wheel at $ 85, always under the watchful eye of the Central Bank (BCRA).
At official retail market, the North American currency operates at an average of $ 90.72 in agencies and banks of the city of Buenos Aires, so the saving dollar, which is calculated with the surcharge of 30% of the PAÍS tax plus 35% of the income tax, sells for around $ 149.70.
According to the usual survey carried out by the central bank Among the main financial entities that operated in the City, these are the sale prices of the official retail dollar:
– Galicia: $ 91
– Nation: $ 90
– Santander: $ 91
– Patagonia: $ 90.75
– Itaú: $ 90.50
He Dolar blue, which is located at $ 162, does not have an official price, but rather its value leaves the average price in places of unofficial exchange.
For his part, Argentina’s country risk it stands at 1,375 basis points.
They reinforce the dollar’s grip: who suffers new obstacles
Argentina begins the year with a Reinforced dollar stocks: The Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic ordered that importers of luxury goods and from a specific set of final goods must obtain financing before accessing the exchange market official to cancel payments.
The measure identifies the positions of the Mercosur Common Nomenclator reached, which involve a monthly global amount of $ 300 million in the case of final goods and $ 25 million in luxury goods.
Importers will only be able to access the official market after 90 days from the dispatch to market for the final products and from 365 days for goods identified as luxury goods.
The measure will apply to all goods that have been shipped from origin as of January 7, 2021.
The measure covers luxury products such as:
- High-end cars and motorcycles
- Drinks such as champagne, whiskey, liqueurs and other spirits with a price greater than 50 dollars per liter
- Recreational boats
- Gourmet foods like caviar
- Pearls, diamonds and other precious stones, among other products.
Concern about Central Bank reserves
The hardening of the dollar stocks It was a measure that several analysts anticipated as possible in the context of the absence of credit for the country and dwindling reserves.
According to official data, reserves fell by US $ 1.204 million in November and closed that month at u $ s38,652 million, the lowest level since December 26, 2015, when the incoming administration of Mauricio Macri just came out of the exchange market. So far this year, the coffers of the BCRA lost $ 6.197 million.
Much has been discussed Central’s “firepower”. That is, if you have enough dollars or not.
For Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BoFA), net reserves are at a “critically low” level of u $ s4,000 million (gross reserves minus China swap, deposits and other short-term debt). But it warns that liquid reserves are negative by $ 1 billion (net reserves minus gold and SDR holdings).
“This does not mean that BCRA does not have reserves to intervene in the exchange rate (they have been even more negative in 2015); it simply indicates that liquid reserves are less than short-term liabilities,” the bank explained in an extensive paper dedicated fully to the exchange situation of Argentina.
On the other hand, the new exchange restriction measure is part of the Government’s strategy to control the dollar and strengthen reserves during 2021.
Control of the dollar: this is the official plan
● Sale of BCRA and Treasury bonds
This is what it has already been doing. It is estimated that, on average, the Government intervenes with sales of around US $ 5 million per day. It is a meager volume, but – like all unstoppable sales – it becomes unsustainable over time.
And less if, as has been happening, Argentina’s trade surplus slips away. That surplus, which at the beginning of the year far exceeded US $ 1,000 million per month – in fact, in the first eleven months of 2020, the trade surplus accumulated US $ 12,497 million, and fell to only US $ 271 million. last month.
● Placement of debt in pesos
It is also an operation that the Economy has been carrying out (and perfected) in recent months, with the aim of regulating the amount of pesos that circulate through the economy.
To catch the attention of investors, some of these instruments (all in pesos) are issued tied to the evolution of the “official” dollar (exchange rate insurance), while others are aligned with inflation (CER).
Yesterday Monday, in fact, the Palacio de Hacienda raised $ 131,844 million through a four-instrument operation, which will allow it to face the payment of the $ 125.3 billion that expire this week.
Economy announced that it closed the last two months with a 112% refinancing of its maturities, exceeding the commitments of November and December. Guzmán announced that he reached an extra financing for $ 386,730 million in the year.
“With this result, the fiscal and financial objectives postulated on November 2 are met, with which it was aimed to build a bridge of stability that would connect with the economic program for the year 2021, of which the Budget law will be the central pillar “added the minister, through a statement.
● Placement of debt in dollars
They are issues that serve to “give way” to foreign funds placed in pesos. On December 15, the Treasury placed another $ 750 million (added to the $ 750 million last November).
In Economy they do not give details, but in the economic team do not rule out that another issue of this type is necessary in the first weeks of 2021, despite the high cost in dollars that this implies, especially if in this way the stability of the exchange market is guaranteed.
Dollar 2021: the year begins with a reinforced stocks for companies.
● Is the negotiation with the IMF accelerated?
The negotiators have a meeting date for the first week of January, once the holidays are over.
The IMF does not impose a devaluation as a condition to sign an agreement, but there is something certain: the technicians want the exchange gap to narrow. It would be the way to ensure that the Central Bank’s reserves – as happened in recent weeks – grow again.
Is there a way to narrow the gap without a devaluation? The orthodox way would be through an interest rate hike. A path that Guzmán always resisted traveling. But that the IMF puts on the table to achieve the objective.
For now, the minister refuses to apply that recipe. But the truth is that officials are very aware of the evolution of the exchange market.
From the City, Most consulting firms presage the worst: that the BCRA – unlike what happened in December – will no longer be able to acquire dollars for reservations at the beginning of this year.
● Favorable international context
The external scenario plays in favor of the stabilization of the “exchange gap”. Basically due to the weakness of the dollar on a global scale, in an international context with interest rates at the historic zero percent.
This scenario, precisely, makes it possible for the price of a ton of soy to have exceeded US $ 460, which obviously also helps to maintain stability. This is indirect, but it also opens the door to lasting stabilization.
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