why they grow back and how long will they last

For the first time in the year, they registered three consecutive weeks of growth and recovered their levels in mid-May, according to the BCRA.

The deposits in Dollars from the private sector They stitched together for the first time in the year three consecutive weeks of growth until reaching $ 17.060 million, almost $ 300 million more than at the end of last month, and recovered the existing levels in mid-May, according to reports from the Central Bank (BCRA).

Punctually, deposits increased by US $ 285 million since June 26, when they reached US $ 16,775 million -minimum from November 6, 2016- to finally reach US $ 17,060 million on July 21 , last available data.

The data becomes relevant if it is taken into account that, with the exception of the last weeks of 2019, deposits have been falling almost without interruptions since August 2019 after reaching the record of US $ 32,492 million.

According to the latest BCRA report, savers bought in May $ 438 million for hoarding, less than half than in 2019 but 15 times more than in March of this year, when the quota of US $ 200 per person and the 30% surcharge for the PAIS tax already applied.

In addition, about 2,400,000 people bought an average of US $ 190 in May, doubling the amount that had been accessed by the exchange market in April (1.2 million) and six times more than in March (400 thousand) .

Dollar deposits basted for the first time in the year three consecutive weeks of growth

Why deposits go up and how long it would last

“The purchase of the $ 200 quota increased in recent weeks due to the search for guard by uncertainty of the crisis, which also caused dollar deposits to rise“Julia Segoviano, an economist at the consulting firm LCG, told Télam.

“Anyway,” he added, “the Dolar blue went up quite. If there starts to be more instability and sustained increase in the gap with the official will return the trickle of foreign exchange. I wouldn’t take the raise in the deposits like a permanent signal

For his part, the chief economist of Ecolatina, Matias Rajnerman, told Télam that the increase in deposits responds to two factors: “On the one hand, the purchase of Dollars retailers who stay within the local financial system for savings and not for. And, secondly, that the initial fear of the Alberto Fernández government and the quarantine of a confiscation of the deposits or one that attacked the savers passed a little. ”

“In this frame, Deposits stopped coming out and, in the end, a few took their silver out of the mattress and took it back to the bank“, he claimed.

Regarding the increase in the gap with the blue dollar, which this week reached the record of 140 pesos after the restrictions of the BCRA to avoid the so-called “digital coleros”, the economist stated thate will not “significantly” affect deposits.

“Although the incentive to ‘mash’ (the purchase of dollars in the official market for its subsequent sale in parallel) grows, it is an operation that implies, on the one hand, going to pesos in a context of great uncertainty and, at the same time, leaving the formal market to enter the informal market. Therefore, I believe that its impact on the total system is limited, “he told Télam.

If there begins to be more instability and the gap with the official increases, the trickle of currency will return

More controls for the dollar

In recent weeks, the Central Bank detected that numerous savings banks opened in virtual banks that, without entering their credit and other references, and they bought up to u $ s200 at an official price and then sell it on the black market or transfer it to third parties.

Given the sustained increase in these operations, it established, through Communication “A” 7072, that banks should require information from customers who make dollar transfers to destination accounts with certain characteristics: those whose age is less than 180 days or that they have not registered deposits or withdrawals in that same period or for accounts that they receive from two transfers in foreign currency during the calendar month.

In both cases, the banks must accredit the money until the client justifies the reason for the transfer and, in case the justification does not take place, the transfer must be rejected.

This week, the BCRA suspended some 300 accounts that operated through the Brubank digital bank by “virtual collectors” when verifying that they were accounts that received pesos to change them into dollars and then transfer them to the account of a third party.

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