Looking at the dollar and inflation, Argentines who can save a few pesos a month wonder if the fixed term is still an interesting alternative
That Argentine who can save money Some pesos and you want to put them to fixed term wondering if it’s still a good alternative to turn in August.
Above all, due to the domestic economic crisis, boosted to the maximum exponent by the pandemic, which opens up new problems and mismatches that focus on a possible acceleration of both inflation and the price of dollar.
Of course, all the aforementioned happens in a framework where the dollar it becomes a good of protection but difficult to access, for a exchange clamp that does not allow buying more than $ 200 a month in the official market.
And on the other hand, the blue got to climb to $ 140 days ago, expanding the gap exchange to more than 40% with the solidarity dollar (which is the retailer plus 30% of Country tax), a fact that puts pressure on the reference price of exchange rate and that can be transferred to prices.
Despite these threats and difficulties, so far, throughout the year an equation has been given that closes the saver who went out of his way to fixed term in pesos, since it beat the general rise in prices.
In figures: with a interest rate annual 30.02% (or 2.5% monthly) for loans of less than $ 100,000, offered by almost all banks to their users, this instrument of saving beat him in recent months to the inflation, which for example in June was 2.2%. Percentage that would be similar in all of July.
Although if you compare the performance of Fixed deadlines with the devaluation of the currency, were held by below of this level. In fact, as far as July, he exchange rate goes up 3.1% in the official retail plaza and the price implicit of dollar that is achieved in the Stock Exchange with the purchase and sale of Actions or bonds (Cash with settlement (CCL) and MEP), climbs up to 13% only in the month.
In summary, the x-ray shows that, today, the Fixed deadlines they beat the inflation but they lose against the movement of the dollar.
Let’s remember that the inflation it comes at a ‘low’ level aided by controls of prices, frozen rates and one exercise economic very depressed“alert iProfessional Mariela Díaz Romero, Senior Economist at the consultancy Econviews.
In the following graph, it is verified that this happens punctually with the different variables in the last four months, since the quarantine of the covid-19 pandemic began.
Fixed-term performance during quarantine was above inflation
Fixed terms: should we put money in August?
Although it is true that in the first part of the year Fixed deadlines they beat the inflation, the economists consulted by iProfessional They put a blanket of doubts that this beneficial situation will continue in the coming months.
And to AugustSpecifically, everything will depend on what happens with the various variables, such as the evolution of the recent overheating of the value of the Dolar blue. Something that can put pressure on kind exchange and at the same time speed up the prices of some products.
In the short term, economists consulted by iProfessional affirm that you will start to notice a acceleration of the inflation, and the thing to watch out for is that the interest rates of the Fixed deadlines Accompany that rhythm to continue being positive and, logically, attractive.
“We hope that the inflation during the second semester is, on average, somewhat higher than 3.5% per month, and then if the interest rate pay to the savers does not go up, it will lag behind the inflation and at kind of change also “, summarizes Diaz Romero.
And adds: “We hope that the exchange rate accelerate, which will generate the rate of inflation also do it (for the handover effect), but to a lesser extent “.
Meanwhile, according to Bacigalupo, if you look at the REM of the central bank, a report where the monetary entity surveys various economists, a inflation of 3% for August. “We project it to be 2.8%. I don’t think it will move the ammeter too much, but it’s subject to what happens with the blue“, He says.
For Ivan Cachanosky, economist of the Freedom and Progress Foundation, the inflation can also scale to 3.5% in August.
“There’s a key factor which will help the inflation accelerate and is that, as it returns to normal and activities return to work, the pesos that were saved as a precaution will no longer be sued and this can get you Pressure to the parallel exchange rate “, alerts this analyst.
In the event of a noticeable increase in prices, it is estimated that the Government will react not to cause an imbalance and will maintain positive rates for the savers.
“Contain the inflation may have a little more priority on the post-pandemic government’s agenda, and this it could mean increase in the interest rates sometime in second semester“ complete Cachanosky.
In addition, an important issue to clarify is that in recent months the forecasts on inflation always were plus high of what specifically finished being their final numbers.
An example of this is that in April the effective rate of fixed term was 1.8% and the inflation was at 1.5%, despite the expected 2.5% according to the survey of the REM of the central bank.
In fact, the rate of the Fixed deadlines beat him every month to the rise of prices. Something that can happen again in August.
“If you look at the comparison between effective monthly rate of the fixed term from April to June, always beat the effective inflation“highlights Bacigalupo.
And to August considers that “the scenario will not change too much, unless there is a shock as there is no agreement with the debt, or that the blue explode and that is why people are scared and take out their deposits, or that something else happens that frightens the Argentines. ”
How much does a fixed term yield today?
A theme that takes on importance is the performance which offers a fixed term (2.5% monthly), which is a level very close to inflation (in June it was 2.2%). If you take the case to be done a placement 30 days from $ 100,000, the performance obtained will be $ 2,500.
A rent which is not so attractive because of the capital allocated, but also the saver do you have any other “escape“to maintain the purchasing power of their savings. This is especially the case for Business they cannot go to Dolar blue, because it is a illegal operation and that cannot be justified before the AFIP. So they have no other option than bank loans.
“I think there will be no significant change in behavior and there will continue to be an increase in placements to fixed termwho are coming growing strong the last months. In may the total stock of this type rose 8% in the month against April, in June increased 11.9% and July it was up 5.6% “, summarizes Bacigalupo.
“The impossibility of buy dollars it will continue to exist, you can even go deeper. But not having a hedge against a strong currency, like the dollar, the closest substitute there is to buy goods or something tied to the inflation, which is what will end up winning, “he says Guido Lorenzo, Chief Economist of the LCG consultant.
And he adds: “In general, there are many companies captive of the Fixed deadlines, not so much individuals. I do not see that for now these placements are so attractive, but these funds are captive to this option. The truth is that a positive real return is needed. ”
In this sense, Lawrence concludes: “For him very short term, he fixed term yes you can stay positive because we don’t see an acceleration of the inflation important. There are not many places to go, but it is not so attractive now. ”
Is that if the inflation go higher and Fixed deadlines do not offer too much appeal, the saver look more “lovingly” at Dolar blue, something that can overheat its price due to the greater demand and the lack of dollars in the market.
So the Government, as tool to avoid a phase shift of the economy, you probably don’t want to leave behind the yields of the Fixed deadlines with respect to the rest of the variables.
The latent dangers
In short, there are latent dangers that can lead to the questioning of the future profitability which will offer in pesos a fixed term.
Is that there are too many “sleepy” factors and outdated that, according to experts, can wake up at any time and alter the current situation.
These tensions push with the intention of the Government to seek, in the midst of the economic crisis, to maintain the “status quo“of those prices that could generate general setbacks if they were to move.
“With the artificial numbness of the inflation in recent months, especially since the end of March, and with all the reasons behind it, such as the quarantine stop and the people don’t spend silver, since for example you are putting it to fixed term“, He says Elizabeth Bacigalupoeconomist of ABC.
To complete that as soon as you leave the pandemic, “there may be a acceleration of the inflation, but it is very difficult to predict when it will be and of what magnitude. But all ´motorsWhich explain to the inflation they throw it up. ”
It should be noted that a large number of still prices that contributed to “iron” the indices of inflationread the imposition on various industries of “maximum prices” and frozen rates of services, such as gas, electricity and transport.
“Of that freezingAt some point, it is going to have to come out and I do not know if it will be done this year, but something will have to be done, even if it is little by little. But every time I know accommodate those relative prices, in general, everything is going up “, he concludes Bacigalupo.
To this is added the exchange rate delay, the Pressure of the huge issue and circulation of pesos in the economy, added the high public spending of the State due to the pandemic.
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