This Wednesday, the price of the dollar offers a disparate behavior in the different market segments. While the dollar blue raises a peso, to $ 133 for sale, the market parities cut two pesos, with a counted with liquidation negotiated in the area of 117 pesos.
Meanwhile, in the formal plaza, the dollar wholesaler exhibits a marginal increase of six cents again, at 71.78 pesos. So far in 2020 a 19.9%, about five points above the inflation of the period.
On Tuesday, the blue dollar rose 1.5% or two pesos within minutes of the close of business, to $ 132 for sale. Now he gained a weight in the opening, at 133 pesos. In the last week the increase is six pesos or 4.7 percent.
The informal currency comes lateralizing since last May 15, when she underwent surgery historical maximum of 138 pesos. However, on the last wheels it reacted upwards again, from the hands of the new restrictions imposed since last week, when the BCRA authorized banks to block transfers in dollars that cannot be justified by their clients.
The measure aimed at preventing that individuals who access the USD 200 monthly quota resell these currencies in exchange for a commission, at the same time that these buyers exceeded this quota when receiving the transfers.
The financial analyst Christian buteler indicated that “always greater regulations and obstacles to buy the officer obviously they will impact at the price of blue. Remember that the official channel, with the famous ´puré ‘, fuels supply in the parallel market, by those savers who take advantage of the price gap to make a profit. When this is cut, the supply is retracted and the blue price goes up. ”
The “mash” maneuver allows you to earn $ 5,700 immediately, by reselling the USD 200 bought in the informal circuit in the bank
The “mash” maneuver It is the one where those who buy their USD 200 in banks today at $ 98.36 (for the surcharge of 30% of the Tax for an Inclusive and Solidarity Argentina – PAIS) make a difference of about $ 5,700 by reselling them at the informal price.
A blue with higher price also implies an incentive to part with dollars for those who hoarded currency in the past year and are now in need of pesos to honor current expenses. In the same sense, the “caves” -which offer their service for “delivery” – guarantee a higher purchase price of 129 pesos for large operations and 127 pesos for retail, for accumulate stock, waiting for more intense demand in the coming months, if there is a reopening of the post-quarantine economy.
“Another point to keep in mind is that the gap between buying and selling narrows in the informal market. This means that there is not a great demand, but there is a drop in supply, “said Christian Buteler to Infobae.
The blue dollar accumulates a gain of 77% in 2020, compared to 20% of the official dollar
On the other hand, operations to dollarize through the stock exchange channel also suffered severe restrictions in recent months, as extended the parking to five daysThat is, the term to retain portfolio bonds in the MEP dollar businesses, to increase the risk implicit in an operation that involves fixed income with high volatility.
In addition, the prohibition, for a period of 90 days, of acquiring foreign currency through the “dollar exchange” and cash settlement to companies and individuals who have accessed the quota of USD 200 per month in the formal market.
On the other, the National Securities Commission (CNV) limited to 25% the holding of dollars in common funds Investment in pesos and forced the Funds to value their holdings in foreign currency at the official exchange rate.
In the last week, the parallel dollar rose six pesos or 4.7 percent
These restrictions left the “black” market as the only alternative to acquire dollars outside the official exchange control and for this reason it was positioned as the most expensive exchange rate in the different markets.
The gap between the blue dollar and the wholesale officer returned to 85.3% this Wednesday, after weeks below 80 percent.
Salvador Di Stefano, analyst and business consultant, stressed that “the problem in the economy is the lack of adequate financial instruments to generate savings and convey surplus pesos ”. He stressed that “not all the economy is bad, there are sectors that are working very well, especially in the interior of the country, and that they adapted to the new consumption habits of the people, who stay longer at home or adopted telework. “
Ever greater regulations and obstacles to buy the official will impact the price of blue (Christian Buteler)
Di Stefano referred to Infobae that “there were companies that took 24% annual credit for the pandemic, but that have difficulty accessing capital goods or buying merchandise due to isolation measures. With that stationary surplus pesos You cannot make a fixed term, you cannot buy dollars at the official price or access the capital market. So that momentary surplus is passed to dollars, which will be sold again when they can be used in production once the economy reopens, towards the end of the year ”.
Christian Buteler pointed out that “clearly, when you close other routes, the only one left is blue. Many take it because they have no other, not because they want to. We must remember that this surplus of pesos is blank silver, and nobody has an interest in passing blank holdings to informality ”.
The problem in the economy is the lack of instruments to generate savings and convey the surplus of pesos (Salvador Di Stefano)
And he added that “even MEP and liqui operations are formal and registered, so prohibitions are not understood officers for this route, because neither did they cause loss of reserves, because they are a pass of dollars between private hands, which remain within the financial system. ”
Di Stéfano also commented “there is a big myth about the AFIP”, Which he compared with the“ Foucault Panopticon, where the prisoners of a large jail felt that they were being watched 24 hours a day by the watchmen of the tower ”. He explained that “for the controls, today a dollar operation Big bag, which is legal, it seems that it is carried out by a criminal, because it is feared that an inspection by the AFIP is coming, due to so much pressure of vigilance ”.
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