The price of the dollar is on everyone’s lips and for experts it can make a jump at the end of the year, depending on certain variables. Economists say
The economic uncertainty is great, not only because of the unknown when the pandemic of coronavirus, but also due to various problems of its own that affect Argentina. Aspects that alert the economists because they directly influence the price where can the dollar for the end of the year.
Specific, Some banks international and analysts are encouraged to risk that the official exchange rate can go up to $ 102 for December.
This figure represents that in all of 2020 the dollar would climb up to 70%, surpassing by a large margin the expected general increase in prices, estimated at a consensus of 42% per year by the July survey of FocusEconomics.
The concrete thing is that today the wholesale american ticket listed below $ 72, and the consensus of all the economists relieved by the mentioned report is that it will touch $ 88 at the end of the year. That is to say, it would rise in all of 2020 by 46.9%.
A level of increase that is considered as the minimal scenario esteemed by all economists consulted by iProfessional, because several of them assume that the government shall devalue at a higher rate to be able to release some exchange restrictions and reactivate the economy.
To this will be due “pray“that there is no black Swan, as can be a disagreement with the creditors of the external debt or another imponderable, which leads to a further depreciation of the peso in a scenario of shortage of Dollars and inflation elevated.
So some analysts project that the kind of change can get to touch those $ 102 for the end of the year.
In fact, in the forecasts of price higher for the wholesale dollar to December, relieved by the international report of FocusEconomics, the experts of Citigroup Global Mkts, with $ 102, which is the same level expected by this bank in June.
They are followed by HSBC ($ 100), and the Galicia Bank and the consultant Econviews, with a perspective in both cases of $ 95 for the end of the year.
Price of the dollar: economists on alert
Based on this worrying scenario about the economy, with forecasts of drop of the exercise up to eleven% for this year, and questions regarding the results of the renegotiation of the external debt, many analysts foresee an acceleration of the currency devaluation.
In fact, to fulfill the consensus from the experts of $ 88 by the end of the year the official dollar it should rise from now until December more than 22%. And if the most alarming forecasts are met, it could climb to 43% in the next five months.
To analyze these projections, iProfessional dialogued with several consultants and local economists participating in the international survey to learn about their analyzes of the current situation. And also on what aspects does it depend so that the exchange rate may or may not exceed 100 pesos.
Among the highest perspectives of Argentine experts for the price of exchange rate as of December, those of Econviews with $ 95. In this regard, its Senior Economist, Mariela Díaz Romero, he says: “It is because we saw for the second part of 2020 that agreements of prices and that central bank he is willing to maintain the exchange rate anchor even if he has to sacrifice reserves. ”
“We still see an acceleration of the inflation and exchange rate but less than before “, he concludes iProfessional.
In second position, among the national experts who forecast a greater devaluation, is $ 94.39 at the end of the year the economist Splendor Spotorno, director of the Center for Economic Studies of the consultant Orlando Ferreres (OJF) and Associates, express to this means that he exchange rate “it is going up little by little and we are seeing a devaluation gradual that will more or less follow the inflation”
Then come the projections of Echolatin, with $ 92.21 for December, where its director, Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, he says iProfessional: “Although the exchange rate could depreciate to $ 85 following the inflation, the problem is that many have been accumulating exchange restrictions, even to import. And the gap it’s at very high levels. ”
Therefore, this economist hopes that the Government can try, after the exit of the pandemic and resolved the debt issue, “decompress the front a little and shrink the gap removing some restrictions to the dollar to boost recovery in 2021. ”
“But for stir these barriers you have to end the year with a exchange rate higher, above the $ 90 “, judgment Sigaut Gravina.
This is because if the government plans to release the stocks and leave the wholesale dollar according to the advance of the rest of the prices of the economy, around the $ 85 by the end of the year, some may perceive it as “cheap“ and, in this way, accelerate imports. So a higher value is estimated.
“Obviously, if the Executive prefers to continue to maintain restrictions but that the dollar move less to have less inflation at the same time, you might decide to leave it at $ 85, which is what your price if it continues to move 2% to 3% monthly from here to the end of the year, “he concludes. Sigaut Gravina to iProfessional.
They follow in the most alarming forecast for the dollar the EcoGo Consultant, with $ 91.34 to December, where its director, the economist Federico Furiase, sees two types of scenarios: the first is stable, in which the successful negotiation of the debt is contemplated, macroeconomic consistency and agreement with the IMF.
“There we see that the dollar will accompany the inflation and we expect a decrease in the exchange gap“indicates the expert.
The other likely scenario is one defined as “unstable“,” where any of the variables or negotiations fails, such as fiscal consistency, where there is a greater fiscal deficit in 2021 with higher monetary financing. That would accelerate the inflation and it would increase the pressure to the exchange gap. Something that would generate a exchange rate real higher because there would be nominal instability “, ends Fury to iProfessional.
In this sense, Juan Luis Bour, Chief Economist of FAITHFUL, which estimates an exchange rate of $ 88 by the end of the year, consider that the government “will devalue strongly only when he has no alternative, so I think he will not anticipate. ”
From the perspective of Ramiro Castiñeiraeconomist of Econometric, which foresees $ 87.88 at the end of 2020, he maintains to iProfesional that “the current issue of pesos, which was one trillion in the first half, will begin to push the dollar in all its versions.”
While, Elizabeth Bacigalupoeconomist of Abeceb, with a projection of $ 85 as of December, affirms that the Government will continue trying to devalue little by little, gradually, letting the exchange rate slide, if possible above inflation, while there are no price pressures, to keep competitiveness stable “.
Although this expert affirms that the last thing that the Government is going to do as a policy is “significantly devalue, because it would be splicing a pandemic shock with another recessive blow. ”
Finally, Guido Lorenzo, Chief Economist of the consultancy LCG, which provides a dollar of $ 83.40 at the end of the year, it is one of the specialists that carries plus tranquility: “We do not detect that it is in a level late the ticket, question that has to have a strong correction “.
So it concludes: “The Government is quite adverse to the devaluation, therefore we hope that this crawling peg (glide) gradual nominal exchange rate“.-
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