It is not easy to make investment decisions, and this has led to the profiles of savers having changed. What the experts recommend
Argentina seems to continue facing a binary position. Consequently, it is not easy to make decisions about the destination of money. The investment profiles were “re-profiled”, it is worth the expression, and perhaps it can happen that who was moderate a while ago today it seems aggressive.
But, without a doubt, this must be lived in the current context. The important is that for the different risk profiles the market continues to offer interesting options. Of course: you have to know how to look; Sabrina Corujo points out, from Personal Portfolio.
Quarantine and uncertainty: three options to invest savings
Argentina does not manage to clear doubts about its future for now, nor do we believe that it can do so in the very short term.
It is real that solving the debt issue will add a point in favor, but remember that this process It includes not only the current exchange in progress, but also that of the debt of national law and the need for a new agreement with the IMF. .
Furthermore, even after a successful deal, getting external financing again will not be easy. There is also a clear horizon in terms of economic and monetary program post pandemic, even though in the last week from the Government it was pointed out to make some announcements.
“The presentation, in September, of budget 2021 It could be an initial kick to start working on a new Argentina in the future. But you need to surf a few more waves. The projections on the different key financial variables show a high dispersion, with which it is necessary to work with different possible scenarios. Knowing the investor’s risk aversion so as not to get “trapped” in perhaps uncomfortable positions, is as relevant as the analysis of local and also external macroeconomic and financial fundamentals, “Corujo points out.
There is no doubt in the current scenario that the risks are not low and that there are their own and inherited risks.
For those who can’t bear the likely volatility – or perhaps need liquidity in the short term – being conservative can be a good point. In this case, only combine a mostly dollarized position, but also diversify between Argentine and external risk. For low-end portfolios, mutual funds and ETFs can be good vehicles.
Investments for the different profiles
Internationally, it is preferable to prioritize exposure to sovereign or corporate investment grade assets, while they can also be supported in Latam options -which mainly target Brazil and Chile-, being able to choose where one wants to expose themselves. On the part in pesos, which always needs to be managed, the conservative money markets mutual funds and conservative T + 1 funds, which divide their participation among other funds, bonds and bills, are now attractive to add.
Investments for moderate savers
It is understood that those who have a moderate profile are willing to supportsr some volatility in the securities for better performance.
Something that allows to add a higher risk. Even, until incorporating 10% or 15% of the portfolio in variable income. Here the common funds can be a good tool, since they allow a higher diversification. The participation of dollars would fall in this model portfolio and pure Argentine risk is given a more important place.
Interesting options in pesos are conservative or more aggressive FCI T + 1 positions, with tires of the order of 20/30% per year.
Also, the exposure to CER-adjusted bonds, where it will have to be balanced between the short and long part of the curve, within the framework of expectations of increasing inflation in the future.
“Among the alternatives are assets linked dollar which, depending on the amount, can be through an FCI with this strategy or it can be represented by a corporate bond. This aims to “catch” a possible devaluation of the exchange rate in the future, in the scenario of a gap between exchange rates that remains above 50%, “says Corujo.
Aggressive investor: what’s the big picture
For an aggressive investor, greater exposure to stocks. Without neglecting the selection of assets based on fundamentals, It is clear that whoever takes this position is convinced that Argentina will recover fairly quickly and will find a path to sustainability.
Aggressive, moderate or conservative: what is your profile
It is suggested to raise the exposure to Actions, up to 40% or even up to 50% of the investment portfolio, with choice of specific papers if the size allows it.
Regulatory risk may be present in some papers, but you must learn to live with it. Actions such as GGAL, BMA, Pampa, Aluar, among others, could be part of the portfolio.
“Regarding bonds, the important weight of CER-adjusted bonds, perhaps of longer duration compared to a more moderate portfolio, such as the Discount in pesos. Dollar linked instruments, or provincial or corporate dollar bonds they should also be part of the portfolio. The participation of instruments from abroad should be low, considering that Argentine assets could in a good scenario compress their high spread, “concludes Corujo.
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