In the first six business days of July, this alternative offered an income that is several times higher than other types of investments. What experts say
In just first six wheels July stocks before the holidays, various shares of companies they made profits in the bag that arrive at 27%, a percentage that is not usual in such a short time and that surpassed other classic alternatives, such as dollar and fixed term.
A high income which was accompanied by the positive climate that has flown in the market since the beginning of the month, regarding a possible agreement between the government and the creditors of external debt.
It was also noted that several papers they came very punished in their prices and recovered positions by punctual purchases.
In short, in no more than a week a notorious group of Actions It gained between 17% and 27%, a level that greatly exceeds the 8% increase that the implicit value of the dollar MEP, which is achieved in Stock Exchange, through the purchase and sale of securities.
O well, exceeds 2.5% monthly of cost effectiveness which offers a fixed term. In fact, between July 1 and 8, the action of Transportadora de Gas del Norte (TGN) climbed 26.5%, almost the same as what a one-year bank placement yields, which is 30%.
The concrete thing is that this sustained increase of various assets of variable income of the Bag, is based on a generalized behavior by the latest news considered “positive” for the City.
“In the early days of July, he Merval rose 10% due to the new restructuring proposal presented by the government, which improves expectations of reaching an agreement with creditors“, he says iProfessional Erik schachter, Equity analyst at Consultatio.
In this sense, Nicolas Cappellaanalyst Invest in Stock Market (IEB), He adds: “The month of July started on a positive note for Argentine stocks, which was accompanied by a sharp drop in country risk. The presentation of the formal offer to the SEC for the restructuring of Argentine debt generated a positive shock in the local market. Banks rose around 25% on Wall Street when the exchange proposal was unveiled on Monday, July 6. ”
These important rises in a few days of several Actions both are evident in the Leader Panel (Merval) as in the General Panel, which is where they are located Business they operate little daily turnover and therefore face you go up and down abrupt in the price of their papers. Something that happens when a punctual purchase or sale is registered for a high amount.
“There may be papers from the General Panel plus illiquid who have fallen behind, and show significant uploads short-term “, he says Schachter about the current situation.
“There were some rebounds in the General Panel, but it is due to a movement of Recovery of prices of Actions that they almost do not operate and that they had a derisory value for what they had lowered, “adds iProfessional Ruben Pasqualianalyst Fernández Laya.
On the side of leading companies listed in the Merval of Buenos Aires, were boosted in their prices by selective purchases, due to the fact that several had been very punished months ago and were at attractive values, both for investors local as well as foreigners.
In fact, the Argentine papers listed on Wall street they also scale a cumulative of up to 17% (as in the case of ADR of Cresud), in the few wheels that have passed in July.
Shares that rose the most in July
In this context of accommodation of values, more than 10 shares had an increase of more than 17% in the first days of the month in the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange.
“We are in a market What does he want buy something, and any argument serves you as silly as it may seem, and that’s a good thing. Until July 27, this market will float at high levels “, indicates to iProfessional Mauro Mazzaanalyst Bull Market.
Among the actions that rose the most between the beginning of the month until the holidays for the Independence Daystand out TGN (26.5%), followed by Cresud (24.3%) and two papers from the General Panel: TGLT (21.7%) and Capex, with an increase of 21.3 percent.
There is no less data, most of the Actions that lead the hikes came very punished in its price in the first half of the year. Even, several continue with yields very low or losses.
In fact, the agricultural firm Cresud, what in July climbs 24.3%, presents throughout the 2020 an accumulated negative 25%.
In the next graphic you can appreciate the performance they accumulate in all 2020 the same “winning” papers from July.
As to Cresud, which records one of the biggest gains in July but one of the biggest losses in the whole year, is controlling of IRSA, which also collapsed in the market and carries a negative of 22% in 2020.
“IRSA go up too twenty% in the month. So if one increases, so does the other. Even last Monday Cresud went up 40% in the United States, in dollars, reason why it remained arbitrary with the local place “, it indicates Pasquali.
Why was she so punished in the year? The answer of this expert is that for foreign investors is a illiquid action, which “had been hit hard by the market, so now it took a leap and adjusted its value to a more decent level.”
“Now Cresud It was at $ 3.5, but at the beginning of the year it started above $ 6, after having even suffered a ‘beating’ in 2019. So should go up 50% more in dollars to get to the value of January 2. That is to say, there was no particular data in companies but a recomposition of the prices of the firms that were the most down “, complete Pasquali.
In short, the Cresud is a example than what happens with most of the companies they jumped during this July, especially those of General Panel, who had been punished and recovered some positions.
Banks and other direct beneficiaries
Between the Actions of Business plus favored directly by renegotiations with the creditorsare counted at banks, with gains this month ranging from 16% to 18 percent.
“These Actions they have explanations in their specific increases last Tuesday, due to the news of the proposal of the government Argentine at creditors of the debt. It is a compact group where they are Galicia, Macro and Supervielle“analyzes Pasquali.
And he concludes: “All these banks they have this climb higher to the 16% reflecting a principle of settlement of the debt”
For Schachter, he banking sector stands out above the rest because “is the First that the investors in the short term to capture the improvement in sovereign risk. Furthermore, since fundamentals, banks were less affected in this macroeconomic context volatile compared to other areas of the economy, such as industrial. ”
About, Cappella complete: “We believe that the banks are to attractive prices and with him stock of leliqs at new highs. So the second trimester will also bring good numbers for the sector. ”
Also, this expert consulted by iProfessional considers that the national industry should have a strong support for of the government. “That is why companies like Siderar, Mirgor or Morixe have had a higher performance than the index Merval in these first seven months of the year, “he highlights.
Furthermore, it recommends Cablevision in the sector of telecommunications: “We believe you are in a good perspectiveboth for the increase of his dominant position as having canceled all his financial debt. So far this year it has also outperformed the index and is up 54%, ” Cappella.-
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