Cars: with the most active demand, doubts now go through supply

After two consecutive years marching in reverse, the automotive patenting finally returned to first in June, with a year-on-year growth of 15.5 percent in Córdoba, according to data released by the Association of Dealers of the Argentine Republic ( To face).

According to sources from some of the main dealerships operating here, the opportunity provided by the currency gap for those who have dollars in hand – the vehicles remain valued at the official exchange rate – and the extensive financing and bonus offers acted as a hook. to attract buyers.

Meanwhile, the conjunctural factor of the Covid-19 pandemic cannot be ignored in the analysis: during April and part of May, the dealerships were closed and the vehicle ownership registries could not operate.

For this reason, many of the operations registered in June were due to the contained demand of the previous months and sales that had already started and were formalized when the records reopened.

In general, the opinion in the sector is that this demand is likely to remain active throughout July and that now the problems are concentrated on the supply side: stocks of the terminals are getting smaller and smaller and may put an obstacle to the recovery path that began to be observed last month.

Visions

“The business opportunity, especially thanks to the currency gap, remains. Today we no longer have a problem in demand, but some warning signs do appear in supply to meet it. That we have a good month (by July) is going to depend fundamentally on whether we have cars ”, summarized Lucas Barrera, Marketing manager of Mundo Maipú.

A basic law of economics indicates that high demand and scarce supply increase prices.

The lists drawn up by the terminals will arrive in the coming days and are likely to have adjustments, which could not be applied during the period of strict isolation.

However, Barrera stressed that the bonuses will most likely continue.

From Autocity, meanwhile, they expect that the July patents will have a lower evolution than those of June.

“The problem is the shortage of products; the terminals are having enough difficulties for the cars they bring from Brazil, Mexico and outside the region, and at the same time production in the Argentine plants is very restricted, “agreed Ignacio Vásquez, director of the Tagle Group company.

Sebastián Parra, a reference for Parra Automotores, gave a similar opinion. “In June there were several factors: open rooms, competitive prices for those who had dollars, attractive bonuses and lack of other investment options, which tipped the balance to buy a zero kilometer,” he said.

Anyway, he recalled that there is talk of a market of just 250,000 units throughout the year, when the commercial structures of the companies in the sector are prepared for 750,000.

“All rebound is good, but for now it is not enough. And the prospect is complicated for the coming months, because there are drawbacks in the replacement of units and that affects the offer, “added Parra.

The problem, in this context, is that even the terminals are not sure what the stock that they are going to be able to offer, due to the delays in the aforementioned imports and because to the slowness with which the local plants resumed manufacturing, the logistical problems are added by the obstacles to circulation in the Metropolitan Area of ​​Buenos Aires (Amba), which It concentrates most of the automakers.

“We are facing a delicate moment of balance between supply and demand; especially since the offer is going to be very compromised in the coming months ”, agreed Darío Ramonda, vice president of Centro Motor.

In addition, he noted that in the June data there are many operations that were completed in May, but they were only formalized a month later, which may distort the analysis.

For his part, Gaston Montironi, director of the dealership that bears his surname, trusted that the rebound will continue thanks to negative interest rates, with fixed installments in pesos; and by the exchange gap that favors sales.

With respect to stocks, He mentioned: “In our case it is not yet worrying, because the Ford plant in Pacheco (Buenos Aires) is returning to the normal rhythm, the same as in Brazil.”