In the parallel market the currency was offered at $ 128. See what the price of the blue dollar is today and how they quote the dollar Stock market and the cash with liquidation
He Dolar blue Today, Thursday, June 28, it traded at $ 118.00 for the purchase and $ 128.00 for the sale. The currency that was exchanged in the caves of the Buenos Aires city registered a jump of $ 1 in relation to the last round.
This occurred in the midst of restrictions on buying the 200 dollars for savings imposed by the Central Bank and while the Government continued advancing in the negotiations to close the debt swap with private creditors.
In addition, investors look closely at stock quotes They try to be contained with the new restrictions imposed by the National Securities Commission (CNV).
The dollar counted with liquidation it was offered at $ 106.19 (drop of 1.7% on the day).
For his part, the Dollar Exchange, or MEP, it was located around $ 104.51 (-2.6%).
In turn, in the wholesale segment, the US currency closed the wheel at $ 70.16, always under the watchful eye of the Central Bank (BCRA).
As noted above, the Dolar blue It was quoted at $ 128 in caves in the Buenos Aires downtown.
In the official retail market, the North American currency operated at an average of $ 73.53 in agencies and banks in the city of Buenos Aires, so the tourist dollar which is calculated with the surcharge of 30% of the COUNTRY tax, it sells for $ 95.58.
According to the usual survey that the central bank Among the main financial entities that operate in the City, the sale prices were as follows:
– Galicia: $ 74.30
– Nation: $ 73
– ICBC: $ 73.20
– Supervielle: $ 73.50
– Santander: $ 73.50
– Itaú: $ 72.70
He Dolar blue, which was located at $ 128, does not have an official price, but its value comes out of the average price at unofficial exchange places.
He exchange clamp, a measure implemented to control the price of the currency and take care of the Central Bank’s reserves, reactivated parallel market operations, where users seek to avoid the cap of $ 200 per month for savings.
For his part, the risk country Argentina was located at 2,517 basis points.
In the Government there is an alert for the dollar: is a reinforced stocks coming?
After loosening the stocks for importers, the Central Bank (BCRA) He sold foreign currency again in the exchange market. Last June 18, it was the break in a buying streak that had allowed the agency to add more than $ 1 billion to its reserves. In addition, market sources assure that it continues positioning itself in the future dollar.
The turning point to achieve this recomposition was the super import stocks, than restricted demand for dollars for imports to a minimum for 10 wheels.
So, in the time that this measure lasted, From May 29 to June 16, the monetary authority bought foreign currency in the foreign exchange market for US $ 1,051 million. After discounting some foreign currency sales to the Treasury, these acquisitions translated into a US $ 725 million increase in reserves.
In the Central they assure that the sales are related to a lower level of liquidations of agriculture and emphasize that it was never the intention of the agency to lock imports
In this way, the body led by Miguel Pesce had successfully break a string of dollar sales which, with a few exceptions, looked since mid-April, when the banks returned to serve the public.
However, on June 11, the BCRA reported that, due to complaints from the productive sector, the import stocks were relaxed. The Board of the entity took 4 steps in that regard:
- It allowed SME imports for up to US $ 1 millionthat is, it quadrupled the previous limit.
- It endorsed importers to have a liquid balance of up to $ 100,000.
- Authorized access of fertilizer and drug importers to the exchange market.
- He clarified that the 90 days from last dollar bag purchase that must be declared are counted from May 1.
The changes were held by the industrial sector and SMEs, who had seen their operations practically stopped due to restrictions.
In the BCRA, meanwhile, they clarified that the easing had had to do with the success for curb speculative operations and to accumulate reserves.
Change of trend
During the two rounds immediately following the decision, the agency continued to buy dollars. However, on June 17 it closed with a neutral balance and on the 18th of this month it sold again. That day some $ 85 million, as recorded in the data published by the BCRA.
Although official statistics are only available up to that date, sources from the entity confirmed that there were sales last Thursday and Friday. On the wheel of yesterday also sold about u $ s50 million.
However, they ruled out that it is a reversal with respect to what was achieved in the previous weeks. “The seller balance has more to do with the level of settlement (from agriculture). Usually the system is working fine, without locking imports, especially of inputs “, they assured.
The The Central’s strategy at this time of pandemic and uncertainty regarding the debt is to buy time until the Economy announces the agreement with the bondholders., which would take pressure off the exchange rate. “You have to get as well as possible to the other side, in terms of macro balance, productive structure and people’s income,” they were sincere inside the entity.
During the term of the importing stocks, the Central bought more than US $ 1,000 M and added US $ 725 M to its reserves
Julia Segoviano, LCG economist, referred to the current dynamics. “The return of the BCRA to dollar sales explained, in part, by having loosened the restrictions that it had put importers to access the foreign exchange market, “he said.
And he added: “In any case, these types of restrictions pause volatility but do not resolve it. As long as the controls are maintained a lot, there are other imbalances that once again unbalance the exchange market. In this sense, the restrictions on importers never sought to solve the basic problem. ”
For Mariela Díaz Romero, senior economist at Econviews, changing the conditions for importing again would not be the way out to stop the bleeding of reserves.
“If the Central went back with the slight changes it made to the stocks, it would be very badly taken by the business cameras, who need access to dollars for key inputs. Unfortunately, it cannot be further restricted to the exchange market to defend the exchange rate because there is a risk of shortages of imported inputs, necessary for the economy to function“he stressed.
Lower agricultural settlements
The agricultural liquidations, which had improved on the wheels where the importing super stocks were kept, seem to have withdrawn in the last days, although the official data will be published only next week.
“With these controls and at this time, the BCRA should be buying dollars. We will see if it is punctual sales of some days or if it becomes a trend, “said Díaz Romero.
At this time of year, agriculture contributes a good supply of foreign currency that allows the BCRA to buy and strengthen its reserves.
“It is worrying that the BCRA has become a seller at a time when there is usually more currency supply, added to the strong stocks that iron the demand a lot. That speaks of a lot of uncertainty and volatility in the exchange market, “added Segoviano.
For his part, Fernando Baer, from Quantum Finanzas, charged against the difference between the official exchange rate and the rest of the quotes. “The exchange gap, although it is less, misalignments of incentives to liquidate exports or not to advance imports to converge to the purchase of reserves in a current account surplus scenario as expected for this year. The scaffolding of the exchange market is not prone to it, but quite the opposite. So, either the rate of depreciation of the official exchange rate accelerates, or reserves will continue to be lost“he pointed out.
In the same vein, Díaz Romero stated that, on the Monday after the easing of restrictions on importers, the BCRA accelerated the rate of devaluation of the officer to 0.35%, although then moderated again.
“Given the current situation of the Central, with net reserves around u $ s11,000 million and a very hard stocks it would be more reasonable to depreciate the official exchange rate faster, to avoid having to sell dollars“the economist proposed.
And he warned that he expects a higher inflation in the second half, so he considered that the exchange rate should slide, at least in the same magnitude than prices.
Economists argued that the Central should validate further devaluation to avoid losing reserves
Baer agreed and anticipated further restrictions if the BCRA continues selling: “The level of net reserves is extremely low. Partially loosening for imports is necessary to supply the economy, even though the contraction leads to a significant drop for the year. But if the trend does not reverse, it could inexorably lead to being somewhat more discretionary in access to the exchange market“, he claimed.
In turn, Segoviano also agreed in the under firepower of the BCRA although he preferred to wait a few more days to confirm the official selling trend.
“The net reserves that the BCRA has today are few. Ideally, sales should not continue for much longer. I do not rule out that if this continues over time and they have to continue selling, other exchange controls will return. At the moment, the situation has just been reversed, so I would wait to see if it stabilizes. Selling with this level of net reserves is not something that can be sustained over time“estimated the LCG economist.
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