Experts acknowledge that there are opportunities in the local market but recommend keeping most of the portfolio out of Argentine risk
Volatility and the delayed debt agreement are the factors that predominate in the local market. Thus, experts reinforce their warnings when recommending investments in pesos.
In one of the EFI Week panels, organized this year in virtual form, 3 analysts discussed the best investments to make at this time. Gustavo Neffa, María Laura Tramezzani and Guillermo Pérez shared their recommendations when investing in a panel moderated by Mariano Otálora, director of the Argentina School of Personal Finance.
What to do with the weights?
The debate focused on the possibilities of investment in local currency, so Gustavo Neffa, director and partner of Research for Traders, referred mainly to the peso bond curve.
“Argentina is a land of opportunities but it must be operated: the ‘Buy and hold’ (buy and hold) does not exist. You have to constantly figure out how to read what the opportunities are“Neffa warned.
In this sense, he stressed that today the parities of the bonds, that is, “the security they are trading at together with the running interest regarding what they should be quoted “, indicate a lot.
“If they are at very low values, default risk gives us a very important signal but there may also be an opportunity there, “he said.
Regarding the debt curve in local currency, the specialist commented that the market was interested in discovering if the Government “was going to break the peso market, which did not happen, or if it was going to preserve it, as it happened”.
Own Ministry of Economy made many efforts in this sense during the last months and highlighted the need to normalize the local debt market.
“It is necessary to recover monetary sovereignty, build a yield curve in pesos that provides savings options and allow financing for the public and private sectors, thus ensuring medium and long-term stability, “said the portfolio led by Martín Guzmán in a statement released last week.
The official focus on rebuilding the curve was accompanied by investors who flock to the letter and bond bids. In this context, Neffa considered that the weight curve, especially in the middle section, is “a little expensive”.
“Investors confirmed their interest throughout the year, bond after bond, letter plus letter. So, risk appetite ran into the year 2021, 2022, 2023…. Now there is even an investor appetite for bonds to the year 2024, “stressed the specialist.
And he detailed that preferred are inflation-adjusted securities. “They are new bonds that are pouring into the market. You can mention the TC23, TX23, TX24 and T2X2 like bonuses that are among our preferences. They are securities in pesos adjustable by CER, to which we could add some Badlar adjustable bonuses“he pointed out.
Neffa also highlighted that, while the dollar debt suffered a lot of volatility due to the negotiation with the creditors, “the bonds in pesos have gained ground and preponderance in the portfolios since December but, obviously, with a rather large devaluation”
In this regard, he recognized that “it is no longer useful to look at the official dollar, but always we are looking at the cash with the liquidity or the exchange gap to measure the returns, which becomes a new problem. ”
Cedears: out of the Argentine risk
Despite her recommendations, Neffa also insisted that today the investment focus must be on external markets. Thus, recommended cedears as a way to invest in the United States from the Local exchange.
Along these lines, he highlighted numerous computer companies, beyond the traditional ones grouped as “FAN” (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google and Netflix).
“We are looking at some trends in the computer world, such as Globant or Alteryx. We see companies that provide instruments or elements that are incorporated into computers, such as microprocessors. There Nvidia It is our maximum recommendation. Also work platforms, such as Zoom, or data processing, such as Zoom information“Neffa noted, which also mentioned ETFs that follow cloud computing or robotics companies.
In turn, María Laura Tramezzani, founder of AAG Finance, spoke clearly in favor of investments that avoid Argentine risk. “Argentines have our life, family, property, home, work in Argentina but at the same time we don’t believe in our currency. In our supposed currency, which is transactional, “he said.
In this regard, and taking into account the pandemic, he argued that today “the box is king”. Although she recognized that there may be some opportunities for those who want to invest a minimum portion of their portfolio in Argentina, the specialist preferred to keep a more conservative stance.
“When you are talking about the life savings and the gross wealth of a family, the prudence when handling it must be very great. And Argentina makes this prudence difficult for us“, I consider.
And he argued: “My way of looking at liquid assets in Argentina is to be extremely conservative and look for places where history says they are better cared for. That’s the core countries“
The Nasdaq index, which groups technology-based companies, is at highs
When mentioning investment opportunities abroad, Tramezzani stressed the important liquidity injection from major central banks and governments of the world to sustain private activity.
Furthermore, he opined that in a world of low rates for sovereign bonds, the greatest potential to rise will be among the shares of the companies that emerge better stops from the pandemic.
“The first winners In the world of crisis, they are those who benefit from changes in consumer habits. Basically in technology in the world of the Internet. Companies that have their entire sales platform in digital form are reaching maximum prices in the value of their shares, “he said.
And he added that digitization is a trend that is here to stay “not only because of the change in consumer habits but because of what the entrepreneur means derecognition of the fixed cost structure”
Tramezzani also highlighted that the health sector will be another of the winners. “There are going to be changes in habits for health consumers and Governments, who are going to think about the health system in a totally different way. We have already seen that the collapses of the health system are causing not only a large number of deaths but also damage to the economies, “he analyzed.
What about taxes?
An issue that is not usually touched upon when making investment recommendations is related to the tax payment associated with each portfolio choice. In this regard, Guillermo Pérez, CEO and founder of Grupo GNP, a firm specialized in fiscal strategy, offered some advice.
“Everything that is invested abroad will pay personal property tax, with a 2.25% surcharge.. In addition, there are taxes of 15% (profit from the sale of shares or funds) or up to 35% on income (dividends or interest). The great advantage is invest in a mutual fund that, if it does not pay rent, reinvests itself, with which, to the extent that the money is not needed, the tax is not paid, “Pérez said.
Instead, he added that “National Treasury bonds, fixed terms and savings banks are exempt from paying personal property”
At the local level, the tax expert commented: “Negotiable obligations with public offering, open mutual funds and trusts for most of its operations are exempt in 2020, in addition to fixed terms“
Among the negotiable obligations with public offering, it stands out recently dollar linked corporate debt boom.
Finally, Pérez shared with the attendees a “pearl” of the solidarity law, which modified the financial income tax and is still under debate. “The i2019 fixed term interest could also be exempt, there is a theoretical discussion about the text of the Law that came out last December, “he clarified, and recommended check that point before filing the tax return.
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