In the parallel market the currency is offered at $ 128. Look at what the price of the blue dollar is today and how they quote the dollar Stock market and the cash with liquidation
At the beginning of the week of the exchange market, the “tourist” dollar broke the 95-peso barrier, offering itself on average to $ 95.06, while the blue dollar fell to $ 127 (last Friday it had closed at $ 128).
This occurred in the midst of restrictions on buying the $ 200 for savings imposed by the Central Bank and while the Government continued advancing in the negotiations to close the debt swap with private creditors.
In addition, investors look closely at stock quotes.
In that context, the dollar counted with settlement trades at $ 106.90 (2.8% sinks on the day), while the Dollar Bag, or MEP, does so at $ 107.17 (-2.2%).
In turn, in the wholesale segment, the US currency closed the wheel at $ 69.97, always under the watchful eye of the Central Bank (BCRA). In the last days, the monetary authority had acquired foreign exchange in the market instead of selling, with which it has been recovering part of the dollars that it spent during the month of May. However, the price of the US currency remains in a slow upward march.
As noted above, the Dolar blue It is listed at $ 127 in caves in the downtown area of Buenos Aires.
At official retail market, the North American currency operated on the rise at an average of $ 73,129 in agencies and banks in the city of Buenos Aires, so the tourist dollar, calculated with the surcharge of 30% of the COUNTRY tax, sold for $ 95.06.
According to the usual survey that the central bank Among the main financial entities that operate in the City, the sale prices were as follows:
– Galicia: $ 74.10
– Nation: $ 72.50
– ICBC: $ 73.20
– Supervielle: $ 73
– Santander: $ 73
– HSBC: $ 73
– Itaú: $ 72.60
The Dolar blue, which was located at $ 127, does not have an official price, but its value comes out of the average price at unofficial exchange places.
The exchange clamp, a measure implemented to control the price of the currency and take care of the Central Bank’s reserves, reactivated parallel market operations, where users seek to avoid the cap of $ 200 a month for savings.
For his part, the risk country Argentina is located at 2,496 basis points.
This is the highest price at the end of the year, according to economists
Various economists from consultants and banks nationals and foreigners are forecasting for the end of the year a value of dollar higher and higher, due to the complex situations that arise both internally and externally to the country.
East Pessimism is reflected in the fact that some analysts are already projecting a exchange rate higher than $ 100 by December 2020, according to the latest data released by the global survey FocusEconomics.
If this figure is exceeded, the “extra” rise in the price of the American banknote that could be from now until the end of the year would be up to Four. Five%, on the basis that the current price in the wholesale square It sits at around $ 70.
Therefore, in the entire current year, only the official dollar it would show an increase that can go up to 67%. That is, a level that would exceed the inflation expected by the consensus of experts, which is 45.4% for all of 2020.
Beyond these pessimistic forecasts regarding the rise in the price of the dollar, the general agreement of the economists consulted by iProfessional is that, to a greater or lesser extent, there are enough “pressures” for the peso to continue devaluing. Even, the general consensus of analysts for the end of 2020 has been increasing in recent weeks: three months ago the projection for the wholesale currency It was $ 78.8, but it was climbing over time and today it is already $ 88.61 for the same period.
“The prolonged process of debt restructuring together with the economic data exerted a negative pressure on the currency,” details FocusEconomics’ international report on this variable.
This tension is justified in that the economy is found in “crisis mode“due to the abrupt brake on activity in recent times, a situation that deepened since March when the coronavirus pandemic was declared.
In addition, they add volatility and uncertainty other local issues such as the lack of solution in the debt renegotiation external, and the inflation high that is recorded, which would close throughout this year with a cumulative close to 50% increase.
To this are added external aspects, such as the brake on consumption global and the devaluation of the emerging currencies for the situation produced by the covid-19, something that forces weight to depreciate to be competitive.
Based on that in the City he is expected to weight suffer a new devaluation in front of dollar, iProfessional He consulted some of the local economists surveyed by the aforementioned international survey, to explain why they consider that there may be a new leap in price in North American currency.
Dollar price at the end of the year
This concern is reinforced in that the more pessimistic projections Over the level of exchange rate by the end of December, they are headed by recognized international and local entities.
Thus, the experts from Citigroup Global Mkts estimate that the wholesaler reaches $ 102, followed by the bank HSBC ($ 100) and Econviews, also with a perspective of $ 100 At the end of the year.
In summary, in six months the exchange rate would approach the implicit price that today has the dollar that is achieved in the Stock Exchange (“have liqui” and MEP), which is located below the $ 110. And, even, it would be much lower than the current value of the blue.
“We think that the exchange rate is coming falling behind in recent months, more than anything considering the international situation and the levels of inflation in the future “, highlights iProfessional Mariela Díaz Romero, Senior Economist of Econviews.
And he adds: “With the exchange rate at $ 100 and inflation at 50% in the year, we have a 12% real depreciation. Something that seems to us reasonable in a context of debt settlement, a 10% drop in GDP and an adverse external context. ”
On the side of the economist Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, director of Echolatin, national consultant that locates the wholesale dollar by the end of the year to $ 95.22, the fourth most pessimistic forecast of the FocusEconomics, indicates to iProfessional that the two scenarios that are analyzing the exchange rate adjustment are “by price” or “by quantity”.
“By the end of the year, after the pandemic passes, the most rational thing is to try to cut the accumulated exchange rate backlog, because the main commercial partners and those of the region (emerging currencies) I know they depreciated a lot with the pandemic “, summarizes this medium Sigaut Gravina.
Is that in Argentina, “although the exchange rate accompanied the inflation internal and did not lag behind United States, it did lag behind the rest of the commercial partners, as with Brazil, Mexico and China“he adds.
The alternative scenario to the price adjustment mentioned before, and which has “enough chances of occurrence”, is that the Government allows the official foreign exchange market “to continue adjusting by quantity.” “It means, for example, how it happened at the end of May, where the exchange stock was further strengthened so as not to lose more reserves and not to have to devalue,” he details. Sigaut Gravina to iProfessional.
In that sense, it completes that, in such a scenario, postpone a devaluation, but in exchange for many imports start using the price of the dollar financial or parallel for reference, something that “generates other problems, like higher inflation. We do not rule out that situation. ”
For Sigaut Gravina, this deepening of the stocks “it would impact the possibilities of recovery of the Argentine economy in 2021, and there the official dollar It could be below $ 90 but at a high cost, which is to unfold the commercial foreign exchange market. ”
In the same vein, Fausto Spotorno, economist and director of the Center for Economic Studies of OJF & Associates, consultant who forecast the wholesale dollar at $ 91.58 by the end of December, holds iProfessional that it observes a devaluation trend because the banknote “is behind schedule and there are many pesos in the economy. Sooner or later it will be necessary to correct it”, sentence.
On the side of Juan Luis Bour, Chief Economist of FAITHFUL, whose projections for the end of the year are of an exchange rate of $ 86.22, “the devaluation of the weight not determined by central bank, but the peso will depreciate more or less depending on the circumstances (shocks or political context), and economic policies, “he says. iProfessional.
And add “the exchange rate repression of the foreign trade hides, does not solve, imbalances. A consistent economic program – as the Minister proclaims Martín Guzmán– and to get the economy out of the depression, is going to require some adjustment of the exchange rate“. The consensus is that this adjustment in the dollar price, the later and messy it is, will generate a bigger jump.
In this sense Elizabeth Bacigalupo, head of macroeconomics at the consultancy ABC, which projected one of the most limited depreciations of the exchange rate of $ 85.7 for the end of the year in FocusEconomics, this value is associated with “the central bank will continue with its strategy gradual sliding, trying to accompany inflation, or a little more if it can, so as not to generate further deterioration in competitiveness, “he concludes. iProfessional.
As this expert completes, that devaluation would allow to maintain or improve the real exchange rate, considering that the emerging currencies “They will probably stabilize and stop depreciating as they did at the beginning of the year, especially the Brazilian real. Always in a context in which the world is not too complicated.”
Finally, Bacigalupo states that a scenario is expected where “the stocks will continue to harden, the gap will continue to be high and, somehow, after the hardest part of the pandemic in terms of expansion of fiscal deficit and monetization, the Government will try to give some signal that it is going to go progressively and very slowly, avoiding total monetary uncontrol. “
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