Because of the numbers and infections, when could the quarantine end?


The quarantine has been in force throughout the country since March 20, although in some districts it has been relaxed in recent weeks.

Preventive and compulsory social isolation It is scheduled to continue until June 7 and there are already rumors that it will last until the 21 of the same month.. Every two weeks, Argentines sit in front of their televisions, tablets, cell phones or computers to listen to the President’s announcements regarding the quarantine.

Alberto Fernández has made an announcement every two weeks since March 20, when The DNU that establishes mandatory isolation throughout the country came into effect. Since then, a measure that is currently much more flexible, but remains stricter in the City of Buenos Aires, the Conurbano and some other districts of the country, has been extended.

In this context, in the days prior to these announcements, the question that appears in the minds of all Argentines is: How long will quarantine continue?

Speculation is high, expert opinion is constantly circulating, visions of the inexperienced abound, but no one has a precise answer.

However, there is an index that could help you know when quarantine can end and when activities that are currently restricted could begin to be released.

That index is known as factor R0 and measures the spread of a contagious disease. Specifically, it measures how many people someone who is sick could infect, in this case, coronavirus. In this way, the level of circulation that could have in a certain population. From that index, it could be determined when the quarantine could end and finally give an answer to that original question.

The R0 index measures the capacity for expansion and contagion that a disease has

What is sought with the use of factor R0 is to get a number less than one. What does that number imply? That the contagion curve has begun to descend. How is it obtained? To get to know if the curve grows, descends or has stagnated, The new cases of the day are divided by the new cases reported on the previous day.

It is important to note that the index R0 has been used to know the spread of other infectious diseases that appeared in the world. The H1N1 influenza outbreak that spread across the globe in 2009 and the Ebola virus outbreak in Africa are two of the best-known and most recent examples to cite.

When would the quarantine be lifted then?

In CABA the R0 factor is between 1.3 and 1.4, according to the local Minister of Health

In CABA the R0 factor is between 1.3 and 1.4, according to the local Minister of Health

According to this index, the City of Buenos Aires has between 1.3 and 1.4, according to what was reported by the Minister of Health, Fernán Quirós. It should be remembered that the country’s capital, along with the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area (AMBA) and other interior districts, is one of the places with the highest number of cases. Precisely for this reason, there is also the greatest number of infections and new cases detected.

It is important to consider what other countries did in relation to this index. In Germany, for example, the quarantine was raised with an R0 factor of 0.6; in Italy this decision was made with 0.9 and in Spain with 0.8. In theory, When the numbers are less than 1, there are still infections and deaths caused by the virus, but the famous curve began to flatten and it is less risky to go out and do everyday activities.

In these countries the phenomenon was similar, regardless of the level of particular affectation of each one. From the moment the curve started to accelerate and the number of infections increased until it started to flatten, 6 to 10 weeks passed. That is why, if the periods managed by Argentina are taken into account, the quarantine would last until August.

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