The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on foreign trade are beginning to be dimensioned. In a first approximation, the World Trade Organization (WTO) estimates that world trade could contract between 12.9 and 31.9 percent this year, depending on the time until the disease is finally controlled.
What could happen to Argentine exports? They could fall between eight and 11 percent compared to 2019, according to the latest situation report of the Ieral of the Mediterranean Foundation.
“In a scenario of global crisis in the shape of a ‘V’, where the pandemic and containment policies begin to dilute after three months and our main partners begin to recover in the second half, Argentine exports could be in a range between 58 billion and 60 billion dollars, which represents an adjustment of between eight and 11 percent compared to the previous year, “says economist Juan Manuel Garzón.
The decrease would be as a consequence of a lower export volume (oil, cars, machinery and equipment) and adjustments in the international prices of agricultural-based raw materials, which will continue to lead sales.
The original text of this article was published on 04/15/2020 in our printed edition.