The stock market dollar reached historical records and the gap with the official is 57%. The issuance of pesos to alleviate the crisis and uncertainty hit
Incredibly, in the era of the mega exchange stock, the dollar It was the featured news again. Of course, not because of the rise of the ticket in the official lane, but because of the soaring “free” prices in the stock market.
The dollar that comes from arbitrating assets such as bonds and stocks, known as “counted with liquidation“and dollar”MEP“It reached historical maximum values. The” liqui “closed at $ 102 while its Creole version (that is, the MEP) remained at $ 101, a daily rise of more than 7.8%.
Translated: investors validated an exchange rate of more than 100 to 1 to dollarize their savings in pesos. The explanation that was heard in the market has to do with the expectation of a strong injection of pesos in the square, in addition to the lack of confidence with the economic measures applied by Martín Guzmán.
Now, the gap between the value of the official dollar and the parallel reaches 56%. For Nery Persichini, of GMA Capital, this Monday there was a triple record for the dollar.
– Nominally exceeded $ 100.
–It reached the highest spread since the departure of the previous stocks in December 2015.
-It reached this level faster: 226 days since August 31, 2019. It took 465 days for CFK stocks.
“The pressure continues in the gap against the expectation of monetary issue to cover deficits and the collapse of rates in pesos compared to the increase in liquidity,” he says. Federico Furiase, director of the consultancy Eco Go.
The issue of monetary issue is more latent than ever. Taking into account that it is impossible to measure the demand for money, the pesos that are injected end up going for the parallel prices of the dollar in a context of general uncertainty due to the economy and debt.
“In March the money printing machine was turned on as few times in history, and the monetary base increased by 33% (about $ 600,000 million). If we take the first days of April, that accumulated increase already exceeds 40%,” He said Michelangelo Boggiano Financial Letter.
For Christian butelerAs an independent financial advisor, one of the main reasons for the rise in the free dollar should be sought in the collapse of rates.
“The disarmament of the Leliqs collapsed the fixed term rate, today with luck you can get 20% when inflation will be double. It is not uncommon for those with pesos to dollarize,” he warned.
“The amount of pesos that is going around is another pressure on the exchange rate, since a large part of those pesos are very likely to dollarize in the Stock Market, “he highlights. Gustavo Neffa, the director of Research for Traders.
“Just in March, the monetary base expanded 33%, a year-on-year increase of 70, and with the restriction of US $ 200 per month, those pesos cannot go to the formal market,” he notes.
For its part, Norberto Sosa Investing in the Stock Market, a gap of 30% is the base and should not be too bothersome, remembering that with the PAIS tax the free exchange rate costs 30% more. “A tolerable gap is up to 50%, which would actually be 20%,” he says.
Before reaching that number, the former Raymond James analyzes different monetary variables and recognizes that he usually uses the convertibility exchange rate as North. “For me, the ratio of monetary liabilities plus Leliq on reserves is fundamental, as a benchmark of do counted with liqui’, “he highlights.
From there, he adds, depending on the level of confidence or panic, the “cash count” may be closer to that ratio. On the liabilities side, he does not hesitate to think that the BCRA will accelerate monetary expansion, although he warns that between stocks and quarantine the real demand for money remains high.
But the uncertainty of investors paying whatever it takes to dollarize could continue. Savers also put the magnifying glass on the restructuring of local debt while looking askance at how the world investment map is changing.
He central bankFor its part, it has the mission of cushioning the impact of this crisis by applying strong low rates on loans, freezing fees and with measures for banks to channel part of their liquidity to the private sector.
In this context, Miguel Pesce knows that the best thing that can happen to him is to keep the (official) dollar stable. For this reason, although the Central Bank is slowly moving the dollar upwards, it will seek by all means to contain external pressure and that of the financial market so that, at any rate, the exchange rate remains stable. At least, in the short and medium term.
But the free dollar will once again be the real thermometer for investors and their seriously undervalued desire to cover their pesos. For now, the gap is closer to 60% than the previous 50%. And a default of debt could skyrocket it even further. “At these prices, investors have no incentive to sell their savings in foreign currency through banks, preferring, despite the existing risks, to sell them via the stock market through the purchase and sale of securities,” summarizes Rava Sociedad de Bolsa.
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