if everything is done well, Argentina will have 253,000 infected

The Ministry of Health indicates that, if the isolation measures were not adopted, Argentina would reach 2 million infected and 20 thousand dead

A report submitted to President Alberto Fernández by the Ministry of Health projects that, in an optimistic scenario for taking measures early, the country could succeed in the objective of “flattening the curve” of infections. That would imply reaching June with some 253,000 cases, a figure that the national health system would be in a position to attend to without overflow.

The conclusion was adopted after a detailed analysis of the evolution of the crisis in China and the European countries most affected by the disease. The report indicates how in Argentina the measures of class suspension, cancellation of shows, social isolation, closing of borders and other restrictions were taken much more quickly than those adopted in the countries that today face the most serious scenarios, like Italy.

But he warns that if he did not act with the necessary harshness or if the level of compliance by the population is lowThen the risk would rise, resulting in the inevitable collapse of the health care system. In this pessimistic scenario, the infected would go to the terrifying number of 2.2 million in the month of May, with an estimate of 20,000 deaths.

Although it presents all the scenarios without eliminating any possibility, the report states that, thanks to having started with drastic measures a week earlier than in Europe (counting the measures since the appearance of the first infected), and continuing along these lines, “it could We can expect a good result from the evolution of the epidemic that would allow us to respond to the needs of the population. “

It was on the basis of this report that President Alberto Fernández decided to tighten the restrictive measures on circulation and to admit the possibility that the quarantine could be extended even beyond the official end of March 31. “My pulse is not going to shake to extend the measure if necessary,” the president said in a television interview on Sunday night.

In this sense, he was determined to apply severe sanctions for “the stupid” who violate the isolation or who have traveled by car from their cities of residence to vacation areas.

“It depends on what we are doing at the moment,” said the president. “On staying locked up. On understanding that, if we went out, the possibility of getting infected grows. And that, also, if we get infected, the possibility of attending to us is much weaker. It is not the same if we catch a rate of 10 in a country that has 20 beds, than if we catch a rate of 40 in a country that has 20 beds. Because there will be 20 who will not have care. that the Argentines have to understand. So that the worst scenario does not happen to us, we have to stay at home. “

In the document submitted to the president, the practices of the countries that have managed to control the epidemic, such as China and South Korea, are compared in comparison with the more complicated cases such as Italy and Spain.

It establishes that the differences in the evolution of infections has directly depended on the severity of the measures and the authorities’ ability to react to the worsening situation.

Based on these variables, the Ministry of Health proposed four possible scenarios for the pandemic in Argentina:

Pessimistic scenario (European average): Duplication of cases every three days without flattening the curve, as is being observed at the European level.

Optimistic scenario (China): Evolution of cases according to the behavior of the Increase Ratio of Daily Cases (RIC) observed / achieved by China.

Late intermediate scenario: Duplication of cases every three days until April 15 and subsequent behavior according to China’s RIC. It would be to achieve the flattening that China achieved but later (April 15).

Early intermediate scenario: Duplication of cases every three days until March 31 and subsequent behavior according to China’s RIC. It would be to achieve the flattening that China achieved as of April 1. “

More measurements in folder

Despite the optimism expressed in the report on the basis of the relatively rapid reaction to adopt preventive measures, it is noted that the achievement of the least serious scenario will depend on the adoption of additional measures. The report is dated March 19, so part of these measures are already covered in the measures currently underway.

The plucking includes:

-Mass block in cities with confirmed cases and evidence of local and / or community transmission for two weeks initially and with permanent review

-Interruption of public transport throughout the country with exceptions

-Massive social distancing across the country for two weeks initially and with permanent monitoring

-Prohibition of commercial activities with the exception of essential activities (food and medical)

-Renewal of the measures with periods of 15 days until the rate of growth of cases is reduced to 0.

-Expansion of Bed Offer.

-Procurement of Equipment and Supplies ($ 3 billion) – Personal Protection, Laboratory (more than 50,000 reagents), Intensive care, Ambulances.

-Influenza and pneumococcal vaccination – 13.6 million doses – 1.5 million more than in 2019 and campaign advanced in 20 days.

-Reprogramming of consultations and surgeries.

-Recruitment of health workers.

-Economic incentive for Health personnel.

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