Why BUDS like CORONAVIRUS grow and how to “FLAT THE CURVE”


The outbreak of the new coronavirus strain is expanding day by day worldwide and it is important to know how to prevent the spread and spread

The spread of the new coronavirus strain started in China, in a city known as Wuhan, just over two months ago. In the first days and weeks, its expansion was gradual and was limited to nearby countries, but some time later the situation began to worsen.

Cases began to appear in Europe, in some countries of North America, in Asia, and this is how what is known today is a pandemic began – thus defined the situation by World Health Organization (WHO)-. This reality has forced the governments of the world to make drastic and immediate decisions to prevent the disease from continuing its course and infecting more people, something that affects and has severely affected world public health, the health systems of many countries and the economy. global.

The coronavirus expanded exponentially

According to the professionals of public health, the spread can be slowed down if people implement the “social distancing” avoiding public places and, in general, limiting their movements.

Still, if no action is taken, the covid-19 will continue to expand exponentially for months. To understand why, a simulation of how a fictional disease would spread among the population can be used.

From the Washington Post They designed a tool that allows knowing what that reality would be like. How kick start, it is proposed to suppose that if a healthy person comes into contact with a sick person, the healthy person always infects.

As in real life, at some point these people recover. In this simulation, a person who has already recovered cannot spread that disease a healthy person, nor can he become ill again after coming into contact with a sick.

Little by little, the curve of sick people -presented in ocher color- it grows rapidly as the disease spreads and it falls just as fast as those people recover.

The spread of the coronavirus is worldwide

The spread of the coronavirus is worldwide

To stop the propagation of the disease it is necessary to take measures that prevent the population from circulating and roam freely, just as it has happened until now in many countries. That is why the vast majority of governments have decided to isolate the population with measures such as compulsory remote work for those who can, 14-day quarantine, limit public transport, close shopping malls and suspend shows.

Fortunately, there are other ways to stop an outbreak. The responsible health have asked the population to avoid meeting in public placesspend more time at home and keep distances from other people. By reducing displacement and interactions, the virus has fewer opportunities to continue on the path of expansion.

However, some people will end up going outside. maybe can’t stay home for work or other reasons, or perhaps they have simply decided that they do not want to follow the advice of the health authorities. These people are not only more likely to get sick, but also more likely to spread the disease among others.

What happens when a fourth part of the population continues to move while the other three quarters adopt the strategy that health experts have called “social distancing”?

Greater social distance makes more people stay healthy. How to get people not to go out? One of the methods to force people not to go outside is to eliminate as many reasons as possible for doing so.

“We control the desire to be in public spaces by closing those public spaces. Italy It has closed all its restaurants. China It has closed everything, and we will close things now too, “says Drew Harris, a population health researcher at the Thomas Jefferson University School of Public Health. “Narrowing down the options where you get together helps people distance themselves socially.”

To simulate greater social distancing, Instead of allowing a quarter of the population to move, simulation allows you to see what happens if only one eighth is allowed to move.

Even with different results, the social distancing Moderate usually works better than quarantine attempt, and comprehensive social distancing usually works better than any other. Here you can see a comparison of the simulation results:

There is a fundamental aspect in which this simulation distances itself from the reality: in real-world deaths from coronavirus. Currently there are more than 9 thousand deceased as a consequence of this disease, of a total of more than 230 thousand infected worldwide.

Although the exact mortality rate is still unknown, there are population groups that have a higher risk of death as a result of this disease, given the comorbidities that it suffers from.

How many people can die, according to experts?

A scientist conducted a drill last year to study what would happen if a deadly coronavirus became a global pandemic. Their simulation predicted that in 18 months they could die 65 million of people around the world.

Is about Eric Toner, scientist the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Safety, who was not surprised when news of a mysterious coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China came to light in early January.

Three months before, Toner had simulated a global pandemic with this virus.

“I have long thought that the most likely virus that could cause a new pandemic would be a coronavirus,” explains Toner.

The simulation of Toner A hypothetical deadly pandemic caused by a coronavirus suggested that after 6 months almost every country in the world would have registered cases. In some 18 monthsthey could die around 65 million people.

Toner devised in his simulation a fictitious virus called CAPS. The analysis, part of a collaboration with the World Economic Forum and with the FBill and Melinda Gates anointing, examined what might happen if a pandemic originated from a pig farm in Brazil. The Wuhan virus has originated from a seafood market where live animals were sold.

The Toner simulation virus It was resistant to any modern vaccine and even more deadly than SARS, but just as easy to catch as the flu.

The outbreak drill started on a very small scale: farmers began to have flu-like or pneumonia-like symptoms. From there the virus spread to neighboring neighborhoods, with a high population density and a marked level of poverty.

Flights were canceled and travel bookings were reduced by 45%. Toner’s drill was so realistic that it also included spreading false information through social media.

After 6 months the virus had spread throughout the world. A year later, he had already killed 65 million people.

The great Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, considered the most devastating in human history, killed some 50 million people.

The simulation of the Toner pandemic also spoke of the triggering of a global financial crisis: Stock markets would fall between 20% and 40% and world GDP would collapse by 11%.

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