A very “moderate or moderate” expectation in terms of job creation reigns among Argentine private employers in relation to the second quarter of this year.
This is indicated by the latest ManpowerGroup Employment Expectations Survey, conducted at 800 companies operating in the country. The survey showed a positive net result of three percent, a number that slightly improves the balance of the first quarter of the year, which was positive, although only one percent.
“On the one hand, it is an auspicious number, because a year ago, what the businessmen responded was zero. And we would have to go two years ago to find similar or higher values, ”said Luis Guastini, ManpowerGroup CEO.
But he clarified: “Technically we can’t talk about the trend yet, because that happens when there are three consecutive measurements (three quarters) with growth. In addition, it still does not come out of a moderate or moderate expectation, ”he added.
Three percent arises from the difference, seasonally adjusted, between employers who expect to increase their payrolls (eight percent) and those who expect to decrease them (four percent). Most do not plan changes.
These data, which are national, were replicated in the Pampean region (including Córdoba), where the result was three percent. In Greater Córdoba, registered private employment already accumulates 20 months of consecutive falls.
Guastini highlighted another fact: no specific sector of the economy showed a negative index. In some it was neutral and in others, positive. The best indicator was given in construction, with 12 percent; followed by the finance, insurance and real estate sector, they are six percent.
“Under construction you have to take into account that it starts from a very low floor. And we believe that the improvement is due to specific private investment projects associated with the recovery of savings, as a result of the difficulty in accessing the dollar, ”Guastini estimated.
In fact, from the sector that executes public works, they clarified that they still do not see improvement in employment; on the contrary, they consider that destruction will continue.
“From March 2018 to last December, the sector fell from 36 thousand to 23,200 jobs. We see that works are being completed and new ones are not started, which anticipates lower casualties in January and February, ”said Luis Lumello, president of the Córdoba Delegation of the Argentine Chamber of Construction.
Macroeconomics and peers
From ManpowerGroup they pointed out that in order for the slight improvement in expectations to be consolidated, it is required that the macroeconomic variables that help to add certainty evolve in a positive way. A look with points in common to that of economist Laura Caullo, researcher in charge of the Employment and Social Policy area of the Ieral of the Mediterranean Foundation.
“It is very difficult to anticipate that employment will pick up in this first semester. Perhaps it can be maintained, waiting for political and economic definitions that will lead it to recover or fall in the second half, ”he said.
The variables to follow? “Renegotiation of debt, inflation and salaries, among others. The way in which the 2020 peers are resolved, starting in April, will be key, ”he stressed.
Caullo stressed that the official statistics available to date show that in 2019 there was no job destruction of the magnitude that could have been expected. “Yes, loss of purchasing power of wages and cuts through reductions in working hours,” he said.
Large companies: Better prospects
The survey showed differences according to the scale of the signatures.
10% Positive was the net employment expectation for the second quarter in large companies. In SMEs, on the other hand, it gave negative value.
The original text of this article was published on 03/10/2020 in our print edition.